Effective House Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

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literature review on house price prediction

  • Jincheng Zhou   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-1995-4002 12 ,
  • Tao Hai   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6156-1974 12 , 14 ,
  • Ezinne C. Maxwell-Chigozie   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0422-1359 13 ,
  • Afolake Adedayo   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4057-3861 13 ,
  • Ying Chen 14 ,
  • Celestine Iwendi   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-4350-3911 13 &
  • Zakaria Boulouard   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4891-3760 15  

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In recent times, there have been a surge in the housing business, such that prediction of houses is of utmost important both for the seller and the potential buyer. This has been influenced by several key indices. Many approaches have been used to tackle the issue of predicting house prices to help the house owners and real estate agents maximise their profit while the prospective buyers make better informed decision. This study focuses on building an effective model for the prediction of house prices. Since price is a continuous variable, it was expedient we used regression models. Some regression models like linear regression, Random Forest regressor (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting Regressor (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM) regressor, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Linear regression were employed. The result showed that Random Forest Regressor showed a superior performance having an R2 score of 99.97% while SVM regressor performed poorly with an R2 score of −4.11%. The result proved that Random Forest regressor as an effective machine learning model to predicting house prices.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology of the Ministry of Education of Guizhou University (GZUAMT2022KF[07]), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.61862051), the Science and Technology Foundation of Guizhou Province (No.[2019]1299, No.ZK[2022]449), the Top-notch Talent Program of Guizhou province (No.KY[2018]080), the Natural Science Foundation of Education of Guizhou province(No.[2019]203) and the Funds of Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities (No. qnsy2019rc09). The Educational Department of Guizhou under Grant NO. KY[2019]067.

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School of Computer and Information, Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities, Duyun, Guizhou, 558000, China

Jincheng Zhou & Tao Hai

School of Creative Technologies, University of Bolton, Bolton, BL3 5AB, UK

Ezinne C. Maxwell-Chigozie, Afolake Adedayo & Celestine Iwendi

School of Information and Artificial Intelligence, Nanchang Institute of Science and Technology, Nanchang, China

Tao Hai & Ying Chen

LIM, Hassan II University of Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco

Zakaria Boulouard

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Correspondence to Ezinne C. Maxwell-Chigozie .

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Celestine Iwendi

Hassan II University Casablanca, El Mansouria, Morocco

Department of Information Systems, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovakia

Natalia Kryvinska

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Zhou, J. et al. (2023). Effective House Price Prediction Using Machine Learning. In: Iwendi, C., Boulouard, Z., Kryvinska, N. (eds) Proceedings of ICACTCE'23 — The International Conference on Advances in Communication Technology and Computer Engineering. ICACTCE 2023. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 735. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-37164-6_32

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  • DOI: 10.3390/ijgi12050200
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A Survey of Methods and Input Data Types for House Price Prediction

  • M. Geerts , S. V. Broucke , Jochen De Weerdt
  • Published in ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf. 14 May 2023
  • ISPRS Int. J. Geo Inf.

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A data-driven approach to predicting melbourne housing prices using advanced machine learning models, machine learning insights: exploring key factors influencing sale-to-list ratio—insights from svm classification and recursive feature selection in the us real estate market, investigation of real estate tax leakage loss rates with anns, revolutionizing house price prediction: harnessing the power of data science and augmented reality, total least squares estimation in hedonic house price models, approaches to improving valuation decision-making: a review of the literature, real estate price estimation through a fuzzy partition-driven genetic algorithm, 107 references, boosting house price predictions using geo-spatial network embedding, exploring, modelling and predicting spatiotemporal variations in house prices, improved methods for predicting property prices in hazard prone dynamic markets, understanding house price appreciation using multi-source big geo-data and machine learning, can geospatial data improve house price indexes a hedonic imputation approach with splines, combining property price predictions from repeat sales and spatially enhanced hedonic regressions, hybrid multilevel star models for hedonic house prices, an online real estate valuation model for control risk taking: a spatial approach, housing price prediction: parametric versus semi-parametric spatial hedonic models, the hierarchical trend model for property valuation and local price indices, related papers.

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Housing price prediction using machine learning algorithms in covid-19 times.

literature review on house price prediction

1. Introduction

1.1. house prices and machine learning, 1.2. house prices and covid-19, 2. materials and methods, 2.1. study area, information sources, and database, 2.2. descriptive statistics, 2.3. methodology, 3.1. model training and optimization, 3.2. model evaluation and selection.

  • The difference in performance between the algorithms (in this case being minimal, varying between 0.9135 and 0.9192 (R² score));
  • The need to select an algorithm that has no overfitting problems and generalizes well with unseen data (in this case, the xgbm and lgbm algorithms may be good candidates);
  • The need to choose an algorithm with low prediction variability in the cross-validation process (low variance) (the gbr algorithm has had the lowest variability);
  • The need to consider the necessary times for the training and optimization of the hyperparameters and whether they adapt to the project deadlines (in this case, the xgbm and lgbm algorithms are the best options);
  • The need to consider the file sizes of the models required for deployment (in this case, the lgbm algorithm generates the smallest file and the rf and et algorithms generate the largest (77 to 112 times larger than the lgbm algorithm)).

3.3. Model Interpretation

4. discussion, 5. conclusions, author contributions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, data availability statement, acknowledgments, conflicts of interest, abbreviations.

CARTClassification and Regression Tree
CECDConsejería de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (Regional Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports)
CHAIDChi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector
DGCDirección General de Catastro (Spanish General Directorate of Cadastre)
DTDecision Tree
EPSGEuropean Petroleum Survey Group
ETRExtra-Trees Regressor
ETRS89European Terrestrial Reference System 1989
GBRGradient Boosting Regressor
HPMHedonic Price Models
ICVInstitut Cartogràfic Valencià (Valencian Cartographic Institute)
IDEVInfraestructura de Datos Espaciales Valenciana (Valencian Spatial Data Infrastructure)
IDWInverse Distance Weighting
IGNInstituto Geográfico Nacional (Spanish National Geographic Institute)
INEInstituto Nacional de Estadística (Spanish National Institute of Statistics)
K-NNK-Nearest Neighbours
LGBMLight Gradient Boosting Machine
MAEMean Absolute Error
MLMachine Learning
MLP-NNMulti-Layer Perceptron Neural Network
MSEMean Square Error
NDVINormalized Difference Vegetation Index
NNNeural Networks
OLSOrdinary Least Squares regression
PDPPartial Dependence Plot
RFRandom Forest
RMSERoot Mean Squared Error
SVMSupport Vector Machines
USGSU.S. Geological Survey
UTMUniversal Transverse Mercator coordinate system
VIFVariance Inflation Factor
XGBMExtreme Gradient Boosting
Train SetTest Set
FeaturesBStd. ErrorSig.VIFBStd. ErrorSig.VIF
(Constant)394.6937.5700.000 390.8664.9420.000
A_typologyA_flatreference reference
A_apartment0.0810.0070.0001.0760.0530.0040.0001.080
A_penthouse0.1490.0070.0001.1440.1720.0050.0001.127
A_duplex0.0120.0170.4621.033−0.0040.0100.6791.049
A_studio_flat−0.0520.0270.0571.020−0.1050.0200.0001.015
A_loft0.2310.0270.0001.0180.2040.0200.0001.008
A_area_m20.0040.0000.0001.8560.0050.0000.0001.872
A_bathrooms0.2290.0040.0002.0340.2300.0030.0002.057
A_air_cond0.0600.0040.0001.2560.0680.0020.0001.285
A_heating0.0620.0040.0001.3190.0600.0030.0001.326
A_terrace0.0100.0060.0431.1950.0050.0040.1461.187
A_new_constr0.2120.0100.0001.0610.1810.0070.0001.057
B_elevator0.2380.0040.0001.4720.2340.0030.0001.442
B_parking0.0750.0050.0001.6530.0570.0030.0001.735
B_storeroom0.0490.0050.0001.3030.0510.0030.0001.310
B_pool0.0810.0060.0001.9830.0770.0040.0002.023
C_coor_X_km0.0930.0010.0003.0930.0950.0010.0003.206
C_coor_Y_km−0.1060.0020.0002.716−0.1060.0010.0002.740
D_age_nbhd0.0050.0000.0002.6060.0050.0000.0002.645
D_dependency−0.0580.0200.0031.585−0.0460.0130.0001.595
D_foreigners−0.0040.0000.0002.347−0.0040.0000.0002.342
D_net_income0.0170.0000.0002.6950.0160.0000.0002.693
D_d_educ1_km0.1560.0060.0001.8440.1630.0040.0001.875
D_d_park_km−0.0940.0060.0001.713−0.0920.0040.0001.705
D_NDVI_150m−1.8130.0840.0002.664−1.8260.0560.0002.731
E_quarter2019Q2−0.0180.0090.0411.766−0.0230.0060.0001.736
2019Q3−0.0240.0090.0051.872−0.0300.0060.0001.854
2019Q4−0.0220.0080.0081.974−0.0200.0050.0001.940
2020Q1−0.0110.0080.1781.987−0.0110.0050.0371.959
2020Q2reference reference
2020Q3−0.0200.0080.0181.974−0.0160.0050.0031.979
2020Q4−0.0140.0080.0722.125−0.0120.0050.0212.066
2021Q1−0.0070.0080.3672.122−0.0100.0050.0672.066
2021Q20.0030.0080.7292.0910.0010.0050.8062.074
2021Q30.0160.0080.0432.1150.0240.0050.0002.103
2021Q40.0220.0080.0052.1560.0320.0050.0002.117
N65,90528,119
R 0.8070.808
Adj. R 0.8070.808
Std. Error0.28100.2812
F (sig.)3461.9 (p < 0.001)8147.0 (p < 0.001)
Durbin–Watson1.7421.705
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CategoryFeaturesValuesFeature Descriptions
Dwelling characteristics (A)A_typology(Categories)
Flat, Apartment, Penthouse, Duplex, Studio_flat, Loft
Categorical feature identifying the dwelling typology: Flat, apartment, penthouse, duplex, studio flat, or loft
A_area_m2NumericalBuilt dwelling surface (sqm), gross square meters of the dwelling
A_bedroomsNumericalNumber of bedrooms in the dwelling
A_bathroomsNumericalNumber of bathrooms (×1) and toilets (×0.5) of the dwelling
A_air_condWith (1), Without (0)Availability of air conditioning
A_heatingWith (1), Without (0)Availability of heating system
A_terraceWith (1), Without (0)Availability of terrace
A_new_constrNew construction (1)
Not new construction (0)
Newly build housing that can be a project, under construction, or less than 3 years old.
Building characteristics (B)B_elevatorWith (1), Without (0)Availability of elevator
B_parkingWith (1), Without (0)Availability of garage slot
B_storeroomWith (1), Without (0)Availability of storage room
B_poolWith (1), Without (0)Availability of swimming pool
B_gardenWith (1), Without (0)Availability of garden
Location characteristics (C)C_coor_X_kmNumericalProjected coordinates of the spatial location (in kilometers). Coordinate Reference Systems EPSG:25830, with ETRS89 datum and UTM30N projection
C_coor_Y_kmNumerical
Neighborhood characteristics (D)D_age_nbhdNumericalAverage age of the neighborhood (reference year 2021)
D_FARNumericalFloor Area Ratio (total building floor area/gross sector area), 150 m around the building, in m² floor area/m² of the sector
D_dependencyNumericalDependency ratio (sum of the population aged > 64 and <16/population aged 16–64).
D_elderlyNumericalAging ratio (population aged > 64/population aged < 16)
D_foreignersNumericalPercentage of foreign population
D_net_incomeNumericalNet household income for 2019, in thousand euros
D_d_educ1_kmNumericalDistance from the dwelling to level 1 educational centers (infant and primary), in km
D_d_educ2_kmNumericalDistance from the dwelling to level 2 educational centers (secondary and high school), in km
D_d_park_kmNumericalDistance to urban green spaces (parks), in km
D_d_coast_kmNumericalDistance of the dwelling to the coastline, in km
D_NDVI_150mNumericalNormalized Difference Vegetation Index. Average NDVI in a 150 m area of influence
Temporal characteristics (E)E_quarter(Categories)
2019Q2, 2019Q3, 2019Q4, 2020Q1, 2020Q2, 2020Q3, 2020Q4, 2021Q1, 2021Q2, 2021Q3 and 2021Q4
Categorical feature for modeling the time factor in 11 quarters
Dependent featureln_priceNumerical (natural log)The natural log of the asking price offered by the seller (in Euro).
CategoryFeaturesContinuous FeaturesDummy/Categorical Features
MSDMin.Max.CodingFrequency
Dwelling characteristics (A)A_typology (Categories)
Flat
Apartment
Penthouse
Duplex
Studio_flat
Loft

34,073
2758
2397
437
154
124
A_area_m2106.037.620.0340.0
A_bedrooms2.90.81.06.0
A_bathrooms1.60.60.55.0
A_air_cond With (1)
Without (0)
19,555
20,388
A_heating With (1)
Without (0)
12,981
26,962
A_terrace With (1)
Without (0)
4820
35,123
A_new_constr New (1)
No new (0)
870
39,073
Building characteristics (B)B_elevator With (1)
Without (0)
27,600
12,343
B_parking With (1)
Without (0)
13,493
26,450
B_storeroom With (1)
Without (0)
8233
31,710
B_pool With (1)
Without (0)
9259
30,684
B_garden With (1)
Without (0)
4805
35,138
Location characteristics (C)C_coor_X_km720.342.39716.57726.63
C_coor_Y_km4248.351.444239.484252.26
Neighborhood characteristics (D)D_age_nbhd43.7011.6611.50100.40
D_FAR1.780.980.004.95
D_dependency0.530.100.240.92
D_elderly1.871.170.106.45
D_foreigners15.908.391.7048.00
D_net_income30.088.8713.6164.96
D_d_educ1_km0.490.370.012.76
D_d_educ2_km0.560.470.015.94
D_d_park_km0.520.360.002.90
D_d_coast_km1.601.000.035.56
D_NDVI_150m0.080.030.040.26
Temporal characteristics (E)
(*)
E_quarter (Categories)
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
2021Q1
2021Q2
2021Q3
2021Q4

6264
7329
8203
8372
7232
8482
9516
9498
9462
9725
9941
Dependent feature (*)ln_price11.880.649.4414.27
price178,123129,61112,6001,578,000
IdNameModelLibrary
1lrLinear Regressionsklearn.linear_model.LinearRegression
2rfRandom Forest Regressorsklearn.ensemble.
RandomForestRegressor
3etExtra Trees Regressorsklearn.ensemble.ExtraTreesRegressor
4gbrGradient Boosting Regressorsklearn.ensemble.
GradientBoostingRegressor
5xgbmExtreme Gradient Boostingxgboost.XGBRegressor
6lgbmLight Gradient Boosting Machinelightgbm.LGBMRegressor
ModelNameInitial
Hyperparameters
Hyperparameter Optimization
Random (200)Bayesian (100)Best
Linear Regressionlr0.8048
(0.0060)
---
Random Forest Regressorrf
(0.0049)
0.8869
(0.0037)
[time 37 min 56 s]
0.8855
(0.0038)
[time 30 min 11 s]
Initial hyperparameters
Extra-Trees Regressoret
(0.0040)
0.8628
(0.0044)
[time 20 min 7 s]
0.8800
(0.0039)
[time 38 min 42 s]
Initial hyperparameters
Gradient Boosting Regressorgbr0.8581
(0.0054)
0.9101
(0.0035)
[time 53 min 28 s]

(0.0034)
[time 39 min 32 s]
Bayesian
Extreme Gradient Boostingxgbm0.8921
(0.0034)

(0.0041)
[time 1 h 3 min 36 s]
0.9077
(0.0039)
[time 45 min 10 s]
Bayesian
Light Gradient Boosting Machinelgbm0.8864
(0.0042)
0.9065
(0.0043)
[time 28 min 42 s]

(0.0044)
[time 16 min 17 s]
Bayesian
ModelNameCV-Validation in Training Set (SD)R² Score
Training SetTest SetOverfitting (%)
Linear Regressionlr0.8048 (0.0060)0.80560.8052-
Random Forest Regressorrf0.9036 (0.0049)0.99700.9135+9.1
Extra-Trees Regressoret0.9101 (0.0040)0.99970.9178+8.9
Gradient Boosting Regressorgbr (0.0034)0.9952
Extreme Gradient Boostingxgbm0.9094 (0.0041)0.99000.9178+7.9
Light Gradient Boosting Machinelgbm0.9076 (0.0044)0.99020.9140+8.3
Model NameTest Dataset (30%)Complete Dataset (Training + Test, 100%)
MAEMSERMSEMAEMSERMSE
lr0.21660.07970.28230.80520.21630.07990.28260.8055
rf0.12520.03540.18820.91350.01780.00120.03480.9971
et 0.03360.18340.91780.00190.00020.01420.9995
gbr0.1264 0.03640.00290.05360.9930
xgbm0.12980.03360.18340.91780.05070.00510.07140.9876
lgbm0.13220.03520.18760.91400.05250.00570.07530.9862
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Share and Cite

Mora-Garcia, R.-T.; Cespedes-Lopez, M.-F.; Perez-Sanchez, V.R. Housing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms in COVID-19 Times. Land 2022 , 11 , 2100. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11112100

Mora-Garcia R-T, Cespedes-Lopez M-F, Perez-Sanchez VR. Housing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms in COVID-19 Times. Land . 2022; 11(11):2100. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11112100

Mora-Garcia, Raul-Tomas, Maria-Francisca Cespedes-Lopez, and V. Raul Perez-Sanchez. 2022. "Housing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms in COVID-19 Times" Land 11, no. 11: 2100. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11112100

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IMAGES

  1. (PDF) House Price Prediction using a Machine Learning Model: A Survey

    literature review on house price prediction

  2. Review on House Price Prediction through Regression Techniques

    literature review on house price prediction

  3. House Price Prediction using ML

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  4. House Price Prediction

    literature review on house price prediction

  5. (PDF) House Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

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  6. (PDF) House Price Prediction using a Machine Learning Model: A Survey

    literature review on house price prediction

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COMMENTS

  1. A Survey of Methods and Input Data Types for House Price Prediction

    Predicting house prices is a challenging task that many researchers have attempted to address. As accurate house prices allow better informing parties in the real estate market, improving housing policies and real estate appraisal, a comprehensive overview of house price prediction strategies is valuable for both research and society. In this work, we present a systematic literature review in ...

  2. (PDF) Machine Learning Approach for House Price Prediction

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  3. Machine learning techniques for house price prediction: A literature review

    This research aims to identify the best machine learning algorithms to predict house prices, and to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on house prices in a Spanish city.

  4. An Optimal House Price Prediction Algorithm: XGBoost

    Our literature review findings suggest that various traditional ML algorithms have been studied; however, there is a need to identify the optimal methodology for house price prediction. For example, Madhuri et al. [ 6 ] compared multiple linear regression, lasso regression, ridge regression, elastic net regression, and gradient boosting ...

  5. House Price Prediction using a Machine Learning Model: A Survey of

    A survey. of literature is carried out to analyze the releva nt attribu tes and the most e fficient models to forecast the house prices. The findings of this anal ysis verified the use of the ...

  6. Housing Price Prediction via Improved Machine Learning Techniques

    This paper will also comprehensively validate multiple techniques in model implementation on regression and provide an optimistic result for housing price prediction. ScienceDirect Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Procedia Computer Science 174 (2020) 433â€"442 1877-0509 © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Real Estate Price Predictor

    This review paper navigates the multifaceted realm of property price prediction by illuminating its significance and checking the different methodologies and statistical ways employed, therefore fortifying the precision of property price predictions within the ever-evolving real estate terrain. The expectation of property prices stands as a vital pursuit within the real estate geography ...

  8. PDF A Survey of Methods and Input Data Types for House Price Prediction

    Keywords: house price prediction; property valuation; real estate appraisal; machine learning; spatial data; systematic literature review 1. Introduction House price prediction, or residential property valuation, is a difficult problem, as real estate valuations do not depend on only physical characteristics of the building itself but

  9. Prediction and analysis of residential house price using a flexible

    The calibrated residential house price data of 2010 had a mean and standard deviation of 6506 Chinese Yuan ($1001) per square meter and 4683 Chinese Yuan ($702) per square meter. There was a relatively large coefficient of variation, 72%, which led to a potential difficulty for generating accurate predictions of the residential house price.

  10. Effective House Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

    2 Literature Review. The prediction of house prices has continued to garner several studies among researchers. These studies reflect the underpinning factors influencing the erratic prices and then offer machine learning methods to solve them. discussed influences on the pricing of houses from the primary level such as the size and context. SVM ...

  11. PDF An Optimal House Price Prediction Algorithm: XGBoost

    Our literature review findings suggest that various traditional ML algorithms have been studied; however, there is a need to identify the optimal methodol- ogy for house price prediction. For example, Madhuri et al. [6] compared multiple linear ... house price predictions for making informed investment decisions. Recent market trends

  12. A Survey of Methods and Input Data Types for House Price Prediction

    A systematic literature review of articles published between 1992 and 2021 presenting a particular technique for house price prediction identified opportunities to include more advanced input data types such as unstructured data and complex spatial data and to introduce deep learning and tailored methods, which could guide further research. Predicting house prices is a challenging task that ...

  13. Housing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms in COVID-19

    After a literature review, no consensus has been reached on which machine learning algorithm or algorithms are more suitable for predicting house prices. ... Fan, C.; Cui, Z.; Zhong, X. House Prices Prediction with Machine Learning Algorithms. In Proceedings of the 2018 10th International Conference on Machine Learning and Computing, Macau ...

  14. A hybrid machine learning framework for forecasting house price

    House price prediction is one of the most important factors affecting national real estate policies. However, developing an accurate housing price prediction model is a significant challenge for the real estate market. ... Literature review. In this section, we discuss the existing work on the housing price prediction problem. Here, we mainly ...

  15. Predicting property prices with machine learning algorithms

    Literature review. Our literature review section comprises three parts. We first start our discussions about SVM. First, Support Vector ... B., & Shravani, V. (2019). House price prediction analysis using machine learning. International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology, 7(5), 1483-1492. Google Scholar. UC ...

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    Several methods were found in a literature review to predict home prices, and testing the dataset using four regression algorithms is suggested in a study. The Decision Tree method was found to be the best, offering an accuracy level of 86.4%, while Lasso Regression had the lowest accuracy level of 60.32%.

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    A Literature Review on Using Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict House Prices. Tanmoy Dhar. ... 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.429 Volume 9 Issue V May 2021- Available at www.ijraset.com Review on House Price Prediction using Machine Learning Monika Sahu1, Mrs. Awantika Singh2 1 M.tech Scholar, 2Assistant Professor, Computer Science & Engineering ...

  23. House Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

    The price of the flats in the city is increasing and there is so much of risk to predict the actual price of the house. Our research paper [1] will helps you to predict the price of the house to a good accuracy. The main motive of our research paper is to predict the price [2] of the house by analyzing the customer needs and their financial income.