how to make a sales forecast for a business plan

The Last Guide to Sales Forecasting You’ll Ever Need: How-To Guides and Examples

By Kate Eby | January 26, 2020 (updated August 26, 2021)

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Sales forecasts are a critical part of your business planning. In this comprehensive guide, you’ll learn how to do them correctly, including explanations of different forecasting methods, step-by-step tutorials, and advice from experienced finance and sales leaders.

Included on this page, you'll find details on more than 20 sales forecasting techniques , information regarding how to forecast sales for new businesses and products , a step-by-step guide on how to forecast sales , and a free sales forecast template .

What Is Sales Forecasting?

When you produce a sales forecast , you are predicting what your sales or revenue will be in the future. An accurate sales forecast helps your firm make better decisions and is arguably the most important piece of your business plan. 

A sales forecast contrasts with a sales goal . The former is the realistic representation of what you believe will occur, while the latter is what you want to occur. Forecasts are never perfectly accurate, but you should be as objective as possible when creating a sales forecast. Goals, on the other hand, can be based on optimistic or motivational targets.

Because the sales forecast is critical to business planning, many different stakeholders in a company (beyond sales managers and representatives) rely on these estimates, including human resources planners, finance directors, and C-level executives. 

In this article, you’ll learn about different sales forecasting methods with varying levels of sophistication. The most basic method is called naive forecasting , which uses the prior period’s actual sales for the new period’s forecast and does not apply any adjustments for growth or inflation. Naive forecasts are used as comparative figures for more robust methods.

What Is Sales Planning?

A sales plan describes the goals, strategies, target customers, and likely hurdles for your sales effort. The sales plan defines your sales strategy and the method of execution you will use to achieve the numbers in your sales forecast.

Overview of Sales Forecasting Steps

Your sales forecasting model can ultimately become very sophisticated, but to grasp the basics, you should first gain a high-level understanding of what is involved. There are three primary steps to getting started:

• Decide which forecasting method or technique you will use. Also, determine the time period for your forecast. Later in this guide, we will review different methods of forecasting sales, including how to know which is best for your business.  
• Gather the data to plug into your forecast model. The data points will vary by method, but will almost always include your actual past sales and current growth rate.
• Pick a tool to support your forecasting effort. For learning purposes, you can start with pencil and paper, but soon after, you’ll want to take advantage of digital solutions. Common tools include spreadsheets, accounting software, and customer relationship management (CRM) or sales management solutions.

As you get going, remember not to be overly focused on complex formulas. Do regular reality checks to make sure your sales forecasts accord with common sense. Bounce forecasts off sales reps to get realistic feedback, and revise.

You will likely achieve greater accuracy if you build your forecasts based on unit sales wherever possible, because pricing can move independently from unit sales. Use data if you have it.

Benefits and Importance of Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting helps your business by giving you data to make decisions concerning allocating resources, assigning staff, and managing cash flow and overhead. Using this data reduces your risk and supports your growth. 

Your sales forecast enables you to predict both short and long-term performance and customer demand for your product. In the short term, having a sales forecast makes it easy for you to spot when actual sales are not meeting estimates and gives you an opportunity to make corrections early in the period.

The forecast guides how much you spend on marketing and administration, and the projections generate your sales reps’ objectives. In this way, sales forecasts are an important benchmark for gauging the performance of your sales reps. 

Sales forecasts also lead to better management of inventory levels. With a good idea of how much product you will sell, you can stock enough to meet customer demand without missing any sales and without carrying more than you need. Excess inventory ties up capital and reduces profit margins. 

In the long term, sales forecasts can help you prepare for changes in your business. For example, you might see that within a few years, your company will require more manufacturing capacity to meet growing sales. To expand capacity, you may need to build a new factory, so now you can start planning how you will pay for it. Predictive sales forecasting is a critical part of your presentation if you are seeking equity capital from investors or commercial loans for expansion. 

In short, sales forecasting helps your business avoid surprises, so you aren’t making decisions in a crisis environment. Companies with trustworthy sales forecasts see a 10 percentage point  greater increase in annual revenues compared to counterparts without, according to research from the Aberdeen Group .

What Makes a Good Sales Forecast?

The most important quality for a sales forecast is accuracy. But, the benefits of accuracy must be weighed against the time, effort, and expense of the forecasting technique.

Useful sales forecasts are also easily understood and often include visual elements, such as charts, graphs, and tables, to make important trends visible. 

Ideally, you can quickly build a highly reliable sales forecast with simple, economical methods. The ultimate forecast method would automatically (i.e., without manual intervention) fetch the relevant data and make predictions using an algorithm finely tuned to your business. 

In reality, the forecasting process is more time consuming and subjective. Sales forecasts often depend on reps’ assessments of how likely their prospects are to close, and perceptions vary widely. (A conservative rep’s 60 percent probability may be understated, while another rep’s 60 percent may be overly optimistic.) 

Sales managers, who are usually responsible for forecasting, spend a lot of time factoring in these nuances and other market factors when calculating forecasts. 

Surprisingly, spending more time on forecasting does not always improve accuracy. According to research from CSO Insights, sales managers who spend 15 to 20 percent of their time producing their forecast had win rates for approximately 46.5 percent of deals. But, when they spend more than 20 percent of their time on forecasting, the win rate declined by more than two percentage points. 

An axiom of forecasting is that accuracy is highest during time periods that are close at hand and lowest during those that are far into the future. Short-term forecasts draw upon the following: deals that are already in the sales pipeline, the current economic environment, and actual market trends. So, the data underlying short-term forecasts is more reliable.

Forecasting for distant time periods requires bigger guesses about opportunities, demand, competitor activity, and product trends, so it makes sense that the forecast becomes less accurate the further into the future you go. (This concept applies to many companies, especially those that are young and growing; the concept becomes more relevant for all businesses at three years and beyond.) Bear this thought in mind when you look at your sales forecast in order to make long-term decisions.

Sales Forecasting Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative

Sales forecasting methods break down broadly into qualitative and quantitative techniques. Qualitative forecasts depend on opinions and subjective judgment, while quantitative methods use historical data and statistical modeling.

Qualitative Methods for Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting often uses five qualitative methods. These are based on different ways of generating informed opinions about sales prospects. Creating and conducting these kinds of surveys is often expensive and time intensive. These five qualitative methods include the following: 

• Jury of Executive Opinion or Panel Method: In this method, an executive group meets, discusses sales predictions, and reaches a consensus. The advantage of this method is that the result represents the collective wisdom of your most informed people. The disadvantage is that the result may be skewed by dominant personalities or the group may spend less time reflecting.
• Delphi Method: Here, you question or survey each expert separately, then analyze and compile the results. The output is then returned to the experts, who can reconsider their responses in light of others’ views and answers. You may repeat this process multiple times to reach a consensus or a narrow range of forecasts. This process avoids the influence of groupthink and may generate a helpful diversity of viewpoints. Unfortunately, it can be time consuming.  
• Sales Force Composite Method: With this technique, you ask sales representatives to forecast sales for their territory or accounts. Sales managers and the head of sales then review these forecasts, along with the product owners. This method progressively refines the views of those closest to the customers and market, but may be distorted by any overly optimistic forecasts by sales reps. The composite method also does not take into account larger trends, such as the political or regulatory climate and product innovation. 
• Customer Surveys: With this approach, you survey your customers (or a representative sample of your customers) about their purchase plans. For mass-market consumer products, you may use market research techniques to get an idea about demand trends for your product.  
• Scenario Planning: Sales forecasters use this technique most often when they face a lot of uncertainty, such as when they are estimating sales for more than three years in the future or when a market or industry is in great flux. Under scenario planning, you brainstorm different circumstances and how they impact sales. For example, these scenarios might include what would happen to your sales if there were a recession or if new duties on your subcomponents increased prices dramatically. The goal of scenario planning is not to arrive at a single accepted forecast, but to give you the opportunity to counter-plan for the worst-case scenarios.

Quantitative Methods for Sales Forecasting

Quantitative sales forecasting methods use data and statistical formulas or models to project future sales. Here are some of the most popular quantitative methods:

• Time Series: This method uses historical data and assumes history will repeat itself, including seasonality or sales cycles. To arrive at future sales, you multiply historical sales by the growth rate. This method requires chronologically ordered data. Popular time-series techniques include moving average, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, and X11. 
• Causal: This method looks at the historical cause and effect between different variables and sales. Causal techniques allow you to factor in multiple influences, while time series models look only at past results. With causal methods, you usually try to take account of all the possible factors that could impact your sales, so the data may include internal sales results, consumer sentiment, macroeconomic trends, third-party surveys, and more. Some popular causal models are linear or multiple regression, econometric, and leading indicators.

Sales Forecasting Techniques with Examples

In reality, most businesses use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to produce sales forecasts. Let’s look at the common ways that companies put sales forecasting into action with examples.

Intuitive Method

This forecasting method draws on sales reps’ and sales managers’ opinions about how likely an opportunity is to close, so the technique is highly subjective. Estimates from reps with a lot of experience are likely to be more accurate, and the reliability of the forecast requires reps and managers to be realistic and honest.

This method can be especially helpful if you do not have historical data or if you are assessing  new prospects early in your funnel. In these cases, a rep’s gut feeling after initial contact can be a good indicator. If you are a manager, you will review reps’ estimates with an eye for any outliers and work with those reps to make any necessary adjustments. 

Here is an example of the intuitive method in action: You manage a team of four sales reps. You go to each one and inquire about the leads they are nurturing. You ask each rep which opportunities they believe they will win in the next quarter and how much those sales will be worth. John, your strongest rep, tells you $175,000. Alice, another strong performer, says $115,000. Bob, who is in his second year at your company, reports $85,000. Jennifer, a recent college graduate, projects $100,000. You calculate the total of those forecasts and arrive at an intuitive forecast of $450,000. However, you suspect Jennifer’s forecast is unrealistic, because she is inexperienced, so you ask her more questions. Based on what you learn, you decide that only half of Jennifer’s deals are likely to close, so you reduce her contribution to $50,000 and revise your total quarterly forecast to $400,000.

Scenarios Method

Scenario forecasts are qualitative and involve you projecting sales outcomes based on a variety of assumptions. This process can also be a helpful business planning exercise, because once you identify major risks or uncertainty for your company, you can develop action plans to deal with these circumstances if they arise.

Scenario forecasts require an in-depth knowledge of your business and industry, and the quality of the forecast will vary with the expertise of the person or group who prepares the estimate.

To create a scenario forecast, think about the key factors that affect sales, external forces that could influence the outcome, and major uncertainties. Then, write a narrative and numerical description of how the scenario would play out under various combinations of these key factors, external forces, and uncertainties.

Here is an example of the scenarios method in action: Your company sells components for military vehicles. You notice that the most impactful things your sales reps do are meeting with procurement officers in the defense departments of major nations and holding factory tours and product demonstrations for them. These are your key factors. 

The external forces are the number of tenders or requests for proposals that military procurement departments announce, and the value of those items. The risk of conflict in various parts of the world, scarcity of your raw materials, and trends in budget authorizations for defense by major countries are your critical uncertainties. 

You look at how your key factors, external factors, and major uncertainties might combine. One scenario might entail the outcome if your reps increased the number of meetings and product events by 20 percent, the value of U.S. tenders launched rose by six percent, and France decreased defense spending by two percent. 

Under this scenario, you might forecast a six percent increase in unit sales resulting from the following: 

• Having more in-person sales contacts should boost sales by five percent based on past performance.
• You can increase revenue by three percent due to greater U.S. tender opportunities and your current market share.
• Major customer France will not purchase anything, reducing sales by two percent.

Sales Category Method

The category forecasting method looks at the probability that an opportunity will close and divides opportunities into groups based on this probability. The technique relies somewhat on intuition, as does the intuitive method, but the sales category method brings more structure and discipline to the process.

The categories that each company uses vary widely, but they correspond broadly to stages in the sales pipeline. These are some typical labels and definitions:

• Omitted: The deal has been lost or the prospect is no longer engaging. 
• Pipeline: The opportunity will not realistically close during the quarter.
• Possible, Best Case, Upside, or Longshot: There is a realistic possibility that the deal could close at the projected value in the quarter if everything falls into place, but this is not certain. Overall, fewer than half of the opportunities in this group end up closing in the quarter at the planned value.
• Probable or Forecast: The sales rep is confident that the deal will close at the planned value in the quarter. Most of these opportunities will come to fruition as expected.
• Commit or Confident: The salesperson is highly confident that the deal will close as expected in this quarter, and only something extraordinary and unpredictable could derail it. The probability in this category is 80 to 90 percent. Any deal that does not close as forecast should generally experience only a short, unanticipated delay, rather than a total loss.
• Closed: The deal has been completed; payment and delivery have been processed; and the sale is already counted in the quarter’s revenue. 

To compile your forecast, look at the combined value of the potential deals in the categories under three scenarios:

• Worst Case: This is the minimum value you can anticipate, based on the closed and committed deals. If you have very good historical data for your sales reps and categories and feel confident making adjustments, such as counting a portion of probable deals, you may do so, but it is important to be consistent and objective.
• Most Likely: This scenario is your most realistic forecast and looks at closed, committed, and probable deal values, again with possible adjustments based on historical results. For example, if you have tracked that only 60 percent of your probable deals tend to close in the quarter, adjust their contribution downward by 40 percent.
• Best Case: This is your most optimistic forecast and hinges on executing your sales process perfectly. You count deals in the closed, commit, probable, and possible categories, with adjustments based on past performance. The possible category, in particular, requires a downward adjustment.  

As the quarter or period progresses, you revise the forecast based on updated information. This method can quickly get cumbersome and time consuming without an analytics solution.

Here is an example of the sales category method in action: You interview your sales team and get details from the reps on each deal they are working on. You assign the opportunities to a category, then make adjustments for each scenario based on past results. For example, you see that over the past three years, only half the deals in the possible category each quarter came to fruition. Here’s what the forecast looks like:

Top-Down Sales Forecasting

In top-down sales forecasting, you start by looking at the size of your entire market, called the total addressable market (TAM), and then estimate what percentage of the market you can capture. 

This method requires access to industry and geographic market data, and sales experts say top-down forecasting is vulnerable to unrealistic objectives, because expectations of future market share are often largely conjecture.

Here is an example of top-down sales forecasting in action: You operate a new car dealership in San Diego County, California. From industry and government statistics, you learn that in 2018, 112 dealers sold approximately 36,000 new cars and light trucks in the county. You represent the top-selling brand in the market, you have a large sales force, and your dealership is located in the most populous part of the county. You estimate that you can capture eight percent of the market (2,880 vehicles). The average selling price per vehicle in the county last year was $36,000, so you forecast gross annual sales of $103.7 million. From there, you determine how many vehicles each rep must sell each month to meet that mark.

Bottom-Up Sales Forecasting

Bottom-up sales forecasting works the opposite way, by starting with your individual business and its attributes and then moving outward. This method takes account of your production capacity, the potential sales for specific products, and actual trends in your customer base. Staff throughout your business participates in this kind of forecasting, and it tends to be more realistic and accurate. 

Begin by estimating how many potential customers you could have contact with in the period. This potential quantity of customers is called your share of market (SOM) or your target market . Then, think about how many of those potential customers will interact with you. Then, make an actual purchase.

Of those who do purchase, factor in how many units of your product they will buy on average and then how much revenue that represents. If you aren’t sure how much your customers will spend, you can interview a few. 

Here is an example of bottom-up sales forecasting in action: Your firm sells IT implementation services to mid-sized manufacturers in the Midwest. You have a booth at a regional trade show, and 3,000 potential customers stop by and give you their contact information. You estimate that you can engage 10 percent of those people in a sales call after the trade show and convert 10 percent of those calls into deals. That represents 30 sales. Your service packages cost an average of $250,000. So, you forecast sales of $7.5 million.

Market Build-Up Method

In the market build-up method, based on data about the industry, you estimate how many buyers there are for your product in each market or territory and how much they could potentially purchase. 

Here is an example of the market build-up method in action: Your company makes safety devices for subways and other rail transit systems. You divide the United States into markets and look at how many cities in each region have subways or rail. In the West Coast territory, you count nine. To implement your product, you need a device for each mile of rail track, so you tally how many miles of track each of those cities have. In the West Coast market, there are a total of 454 miles of track. Each device sells for $25,000, so the West Coast market would be worth a total $11.4 million. From there, you would estimate how much of that total you could realistically capture.

Historical Method

The historical sales forecasting technique is a classic example of the time-series forecasting that we discussed under quantitative methods. 

With historical models, you use past sales to forecast the future. To account for growth, inflation, or a drop in demand, you multiply past sales by your average growth rate in order to compile your forecast. 

This method has the advantage of being simple and quick, but it doesn’t account for common variables, such as an increase in the number of products you sell, growth in your sales force, or the hot, new product your competitor has introduced that is drawing away your customers.

Here is an example of the historical method in action: You are forecasting sales for March, and you see that last year your sales for the month were $48,000. Your growth rate runs about eight percent year over year. So, you arrive at a forecast of $51,840 for this March.

Opportunity Stage Method

The opportunity stage technique is popular, especially for high-value enterprise sales that require a lot of nurturing. This method entails looking at deals in your pipeline and multiplying the value of each potential sale by its probability of closing. 

To estimate the probability of closing, you look at your sales funnel and historical conversion rates from top to bottom. The further a deal progresses through the stages in your funnel or pipeline, the higher likelihood it has of closing.

The strong points of this method are that it is straightforward to calculate and easy to do with most CRM systems. 

But, opportunity-stage forecasting can be time consuming. 

Moreover, this method doesn’t account for the unique characteristics of each deal (such as a longtime repeat customer vs. a new prospect). In addition, the deal value, stage, and projected close date have to be accurate and updated. And, the age of the potential deal is not reflected. This method treats a deal progressing quickly through the stages of your pipeline the same as one that has stalled for months. 

If your sales process, products, or marketing have changed, the use of historical data may make this method unreliable.

Here is an example of the opportunity stage method in action: Say your sales pipeline comprises six stages. Based on historical data, you calculate the close probability at each stage. Then, to arrive at a forecast, you look at the potential value of the deals at each stage and multiply them by the probability.

Length-of-Sales-Cycle Method

This is another quantitative method that shares some similarities with the deal stage method. However, this model looks at the length of your average sales cycle. 

First, determine the average length in days of your sales process. This figure is also known as time to purchase or sales velocity . Add the total number of days it took to close all of the past year’s deals and divide by the number of deals. Then, calculate the probability of new deals closing in a certain period of time as a percentage of the average sales cycle length. 

With this method, the biases of individual reps are less of a factor than with the deal stage model. Also, with this technique, you can fine-tune the probabilities for different lead types. (For example, prospects referred by current customers may close in an average of 27 days, while prospects who make contact after an online search need an average of 62 days.) But, this technique requires you to know and record how and when prospects enter your pipeline, which can be time intensive.

Here is an example of the length-of-sales-cycle method in action: You review the 37 deals your company won last year and see that they took a total of 2,997 days to close. To calculate the average length of the sales cycle, you divide 2,997 by 37 and see that the average sales cycle lasted 81 days. You then look at the five deals currently in your pipeline.

Lead Scoring Method

This technique requires you to have lead scoring in place. With lead scoring, you profile your ideal customers based on attributes (like industry, size, and location) as well as behavior (such as whether they have recently raised capital or whether the contact person has requested a demonstration of your product). 

You then classify future leads based on how closely they match your ideal customer. You can label the categories with distinctions such as A, B, or C or hot, warm, or cold, or you can assign numbers up to one hundred using formulas that add and subtract points for different attributes and behaviors. (For example, “They requested a demo, which adds 15 points, but they are not in your ideal industry, which subtracts 10 points.”)  

To create your forecast, you then look at the historical close rate for leads in each category and multiply that by the value of the opportunities currently in the group. 

Here is an example of the lead scoring method in action: Your company sells textbooks for advanced math and science. Your ideal customer is a university with at least 25,0000 students that has an engineering school and is located on the east coast. These are your A prospects. B prospects have at least 10,000 students. C prospects have at least 10,000 students, but are located elsewhere in the country.

You then look at the close rates and potential deal values for each lead score. Finally, you multiply the close rate by the potential value of the deals in the category or by your average sales value.

Lead Source Method

This model forecasts future sales based on how you acquired the lead, using the behavior of previous leads as a benchmark.

For example, say your company sells a software application. Some leads come from search traffic to your website; some originate with demonstration requests at conferences, and some are referrals from existing customers. 

Look at your historical data to track the percentage of leads who converted to sales for each lead source. In addition, calculate the average value of a sale for each source. Then, by using the conversion probability and sales values, you can forecast the sales that the leads at the top of your funnel are likely to generate. 

Here is an example of the lead source method in action: Based on source, you compile your historical data and discover the following conversion rates and sales value for leads.

One advantage of this sales forecasting method is that you can project how many leads of each type you would need to generate in order to hit a target. Suppose you have a conference coming up where participants will be able to request demonstrations of your product, and you would like to win an additional $30,000 in sales from the demo leads. Based on the average lead value of $600, you know you will want to generate 50 leads who request demos at the conference. 

One drawback to lead source forecasting is that the method does not account for potential differences in the length of the sales cycle for the lead types. That makes it difficult to pinpoint the period in which the revenue will occur. Therefore, you should do a separate analysis of time to purchase in order to allocate sales to the right period.

Another challenge is that sometimes you may not be sure of the lead source. For example, suppose that another customer has recommended your product to a contact and that that contact decides to first check you out on your website. You might very well assign a lower lead value to this prospect, assuming they will behave like our web-originated leads, when, in reality, they will probably behave more like the customer referral leads. 

Lastly, remember that this method won’t account for changes in your marketing or pricing that influence conversion rates and customer behavior.

Sales by Row Method

This method is a good fit for small businesses that sell different products or services. Rather than forecasting sales for each individual product type, you project sales for categories. 

Each row in your forecast will cover different physical products (such as pick-up trucks, heavy trucks, and delivery vans) and service units (such as hours of labor or service types like replacing a faucet, unclogging a drain, or installing a toilet). 

You can employ this method to forecast units and then factor them by average prices to arrive at revenue. Or, you can look exclusively at revenue. If you sell a subscription service, you can calculate recurring revenue for each product type.

For each row, you would look at how much you sold in the same period a year earlier and then adjust for factors such as inflation, organic growth, new products, increased workforce, or special circumstances.

Here is an example of the sales by row method: You operate a combination fuel station and mini-market. Your forecast would cover the broad categories of your business, such as sales of gasoline, diesel, food, beverages, and sundries.

For March’s forecast, you take into account that the new housing development near your business, which was under construction last year, is now almost completely sold and that there are many more commuters filling up. Your gas sales have been growing by almost 15 percent year over year. Also, in March, there will be a special event at the nearby fairgrounds that could draw thousands of additional vehicles to your area. 

On the downside, a new retail complex with a full-service grocery store has opened nearby, so your sales of food and drinks have slipped. Also, increased congestion in the neighborhood has caused some long-haul truckers who used to stop for fuel to reroute.

Regression or Multivariable Analysis Method

Regression or multivariable analysis is one of the most sophisticated forecasting methods, and allows you to build a custom model combining any factors that you feel are relevant to your sales.

For regression analysis, you need accurate historical data on all the variables under consideration, expertise in statistics, and, for practical purposes, an analytics solution or application that can perform the analysis. 

Because this method incorporates a multitude of influences on your sales, the resulting forecast is the most accurate. But, the costs tend to be high because of the data collection, expertise, and technology requirements.  

Regression analysis looks at the dependent variable (the factor that you are trying to predict, in this case, the amount of future sales) and independent variables (the factors that you believe affect sales results, such as opportunity stage or lead score). 

In a simple example, you would create a chart, plotting the sales results on the Y axis and the independent variable on the X axis. This chart will reveal correlations. If you draw a line through the middle of the data points, you can calculate the degree to which the independent variable affects sales. 

This line is called the regression line , and, by calculating the slope of the line, you can use numbers to represent the relationship between the variable and sales. The equation for this is Y = a + bX. Excel and other software will perform this analysis and calculate a and b for you. In more sophisticated applications, the formula will also include a factor for error to account for the reality that other variables are also at work.

Going further, you can look at how multiple variables interplay, such as individual rep close rate, customer size, and deal stage. Making these kinds of calculations becomes increasingly difficult with simple charts and demands more advanced math knowledge. 

Remember that correlation is not the same as causation. Bear in mind that while two variables may seem closely related to each other, the reality may be more subtle. 

Here is an example of the regression method in action: You want to look at the relationship between the amount of time a prospect has progressed in your sales cycle and the probability of the deal closing. 

So, plot on a chart the probability of close for past deals when they were at various stages of your sales cycle, which lasts an average of 100 days. Deals early in the sales cycle have a low probability of closing compared to those that occur in the later stages of negotiation and contract signing on day 85 and up. (Be sure to eliminate any prospects that stall or disengage at any stage.)

By drawing a line through those points (i.e., the intersection between the sales close probability and the percentage of the average sales cycle), you can see that there is a nearly one-to-one relationship between percentage point increases in time elapsed relative to the average sales cycle and percentage point increases in the probability of closing.

This calculation becomes more complex when you consider multiple variables. Let’s say you have two sales reps working with prospects. Gloria, your best closer, is giving a product demonstration to a new Fortune 500 account. Leonard, a strong performer, whose close rate is a little lower than Gloria’s, is negotiating with a repeat customer, a mid-sized company. 

Your multivariable analysis of these situations could take into account each rep’s average close rate for an opportunity, given the following factors: the specific stage; deal size; time left in the period; probability of close for a repeat customer versus a new customer; and time to close for an enterprise customer with more than 10 people involved in decision making versus a mid-sized business with a single decision maker.

Time Horizons in Sales Forecasting

Choosing the time period for your sales forecast is an important step. Depending on your business, the purpose of your forecast, and the resources you can devote to making forecasts, the time frame you target will vary. 

A short-term forecast will help set sales rep bonus levels for next quarter, but you need a long-term forecast to decide whether you should plan to build a new factory. A startup that has been doubling revenue every year will have more difficulty making a 20-year forecast than a century-old concern in a mature industry. Here are the three time frames for forecasts: 

• Short-Term Forecasts: These cover up to a year and can include monthly or quarterly forecasts. They help set production levels, sales targets, and overhead costs.
• Medium-Term Forecasts: These range from one to four years and guide product development, workforce planning, and real estate needs.
• Long-Term Forecasts: These extend from five to 20 years and inform capital investment, capacity planning, long-range financing programs, succession planning, and workforce skill and training requirements.

Getting Started with Sales Forecasting: What You Need to Know

Regardless of the sales forecast method you use, you generally need to have certain pieces of information and conditions in place. These include the following:

• Well-Documented and Defined Sales Process: You need to understand your customer journey and have an established sequence for nurturing each prospect. Without this, you cannot predict which opportunities are getting closer to purchasing. This structure creates accountability. 
• Consensus on Pipeline Stages: Your sales team needs to have a clear and shared understanding of what you mean by lead, prospect, qualified, possible, probable, committed, and other relevant terms. 
• Definition of Success: Communicate clearly what your sales team is striving for in terms of sales quotas or goals; include these quotas and goals for each individual rep, for the team as a whole, and for conversion through each stage of your pipeline.
• Historical Data: You require benchmarks for data points, such as average time to close, conversion rates, average deal size, lifetime customer value, win-loss ratio, and seasonal sales trends. These sales metrics and KPIs are often critical pieces of your forecast.
• Current Status: Up-to-date knowledge of your pipeline is essential, including how many opportunities are at each stage and the potential value of these sales.
• Forecasting Tools: This will almost always include a CRM application and may also include financial management or accounting software, analytics solutions, and spreadsheets.

Influences and Assumptions in Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasting should not happen in a vacuum. Take into account changes in the business environment and question assumptions, such as that past growth will continue. Also, be sure to factor in your ideas about global economic trends and competitor behavior.

Here are some common factors to consider regarding your sales forecast. Many of these can have either a positive or negative influence on sales. For example, changing reps’ account assignments may reduce sales, because members of your team will have to familiarize themselves with customers that are new to them. However, sales could increase if your new hotshot gets your biggest opportunity.

• Economic Trends: Inflation, growth, consumer sentiment, risk appetite, and purchasing power
• Regulation: Trade policies such as tariffs, duties, and quotas; health, safety, and environmental rulings on products or processes; court decisions; intellectual property disputes; and competition policy
• Seasonal Trends: Cyclical demand fluctuation, production patterns, and variation in raw material availability 
• Competitor Behavior: New product innovations, pricing changes, and market entries and exits
• Business Economics: Selling prices, direct prices, unit costs, gross margins, and the impact of accrual versus cash accounting on when you can book a sale
• Staffing and Compensation: Hiring or firing new reps, changes in leadership, policies on commissions and bonuses, and training
• Territory Management: Redrawing of territories and changes in account assignments
• Products and Services: Product lifecycle, new products and services, user experience, defects, ticket resolution, changes in distribution, and market entries and exits
• Marketing: Demand generation, advertising, pricing, special campaigns, social media activity, and prospecting

Sales Forecasting for New Businesses and Products

If you are starting a new business or launching a new product, your sales forecasts are crucial because they will determine how much you can spend in order to break even. However, when dealing with a new entity, you lack the advantage of historical data, which you need for almost every forecasting technique. 

If you don’t have historical data, you can use industry benchmarks from trade publications, industry associations, and consultants. For example, if you are launching a new recipe app, look at market research on how other cooking apps have performed. 

Dining establishments can look at number of tables, hours of service, and menu prices to estimate average order amounts and table turnover. Retail outlets use square feet, foot traffic, and average selling prices to forecast sales.

If you are adding a new product to your line, you can forecast sales by looking at how your most similar existing product performed at launch. Then, you can make tweaks based on other relevant information, such as that the new product is harder to master than its predecessor, that it is a later entrant into a crowded space, or that it already has a backlog of orders before launch.

New service businesses can base forecasts on capacity, such as number of staff and service hours and how much to charge for the most popular services. Once you have this data, you can make adjustments accordingly.

Michael Barbarita, President of Next Step CFO , works as a contracted CFO to produce sales forecasts for companies. He likes to tie the sales forecast for service businesses to a metric called sales per direct labor hour , which you can calculate this by dividing sales by the working hours of people in the field performing customer work. For example, an electrical contractor would calculate the sales per direct labor hour of its electricians and multiply that figure by the number of electricians and the hours they work.  

For instance, you may decide that operating at half capacity is a good estimate for your first six months in business. Then, you may operate at three-quarters capacity for the second six months. Therefore, you would multiply maximum capacity by average revenue and then multiply that resulting figure by 0.50 and 0.75, respectively.

Quick-Start: Sales Forecasting Formulas

If you are eager to dive in and want to generate some simple sales forecasts, you can make use of basic equations. Here are a few easy ones:

• Simple Forecast with No Organic Growth: This formula assumes that this period will duplicate the prior period, except for the impact of inflation.  Revenue Prior Period) + (Revenue Prior Period x Inflation Rate) = Sales Forecast  
• Historical Plus Growth: This formula helps you reflect current trends.You look at the prior year and then factor it by your recent growth rate. (Last Year Revenue x Percentage Growth Rate) + Last Year Revenue = Sales Forecast
• Partial Year: In this method, you project the rest of the year based on historical patterns and early results. Imagine that you know your sales for the first two months of the year and that last year these months represented seven and nine percent of your sales respectively and totaled $100,000. Using the formula below, you would forecast sales of $625,00 for the year: ($100,000 x 100) ÷ 16 = $625,000. (Current Period Revenue x 100) ÷ Percent That Equivalent Period Represented Last Year = Forecast Sales
• Pipeline Formula: This formula replicates the opportunity stage method that we discussed earlier. You calculate the value of deals at each stage of your pipeline by multiplying the potential deal value by the close probability and adding up the result for each stage. (Deal Amount x Close Probability) + (Deal Amount x Close Probability) etc. = Sales Forecast

How to Make a Basic Sales Forecast Step by Step

Here are step-by-step instructions for a manually generated sales forecast:

• Pick Your Time Period: The way in which you will use your forecast determines the most appropriate time interval, whether that be monthly, quarterly, annually, or on an even longer timeline. If you are making your first forecast, estimating on a monthly or quarterly basis for the upcoming year is a good starting point. Experts suggest doing monthly estimates for the first year and then doing annual forecasts for years two through five. 
• List Products or Services: Write down the items or services that you sell. If you have a lot of them, group them into categories. For example, if you sell clothing, your rows might include shirts, pants, and shoes. Match these revenue streams to the way you organize your accounting. So, if your books look at women’s and men’s clothing separately, do the same for your sales forecast. That way, you can pair your sales forecast with information on your cost of goods sold and overhead to project profit.  
• Estimate Unit Sales: Predict how many units you will sell in the selected time period. If you have historical data, use that and then factor in assumptions about demand for the upcoming period. For example, is your business growing? Is the economy in recession? Did you launch a big promotion? Use the answers to these questions to make downward or upward adjustments to the historical figure. You can also interview some customers to get insights into their likely purchasing plans. Lastly, don’t forget to factor in seasonal fluctuations. 
• Multiply by the Selling Price: Multiply the unit sales numbers by the average selling price (ASP). Determine the ASP by analyzing historical sales and adjusting for inflation and other factors. To obtain this figure, you also need to consider discounts, free trials, and unsold inventory. 
• Repeat for Each Forecast Period: Go through the same calculation for each category and time interval. As you forecast more distant periods, your estimates are likely to be less accurate, so you may want to make a range of forecasts, such as for best, worst, and average scenarios. As time passes, add the actual values and fine-tune your forecast. For instance, you may see that for the first few months of the year, you underestimated sales by 12 percent. Therefore, you decide to increase your forecasted sales amounts in the upcoming months.

How to Forecast Sales in Excel

Here is a step-by-step guide to building your own sales forecast in Excel:

• Enter Historical Data: Open a worksheet and enter your past date data in the first column. Then, in the second column, enter the corresponding sales values. If possible, make sure you space the dates consistently (e.g., the first day of every month). 
• Create Forecast: In the date column, fill out the next date cell with the future date you are forecasting. Select the corresponding sales value cell and in the function field, type: =(FORECAST( A10, B2:B9, A2:A9)), where A10 is the future date cell, B2 to B9 are the historical sales amounts, and A2 to A9 are the historical dates. Hit enter and the forecast sales amount will appear.
• Repeat: Continue the pattern for your remaining future dates. Remember that the formula uses only known variables, so do not add forecasted amounts to the cell ranges. This function is a linear forecasting method.
• Power Up: If you have Excel 2016, you can use the forecast sheet function, which automates forecasting and adds a chart. To use this function, select both data columns, and, on the data tab, click the forecast sheet. In the create forecast worksheet box, select whether you want a line or bar chart. In the forecast end field, choose an ending date and then click create. Excel will create a new worksheet that contains both historical and forecast sales data as well as a visual representation. 

For a pre-made basic sales forecast, download this template that projects product sales with both units and sales amount.

Basic Sales Forecast Sample Template

Excel | Google Sheets | Smartsheet

For a wide range of pre-built sales forecast templates in a variety of formats, see this comprehensive collection .

How to Choose the Right Sales Forecasting Methodology

Your goal is to build the most reliable forecast possible, with the minimum amount of resources you need to be effective. To choose the method that fits best, consider these seven questions:

• Is the Time Frame Short, Medium, or Long Term? Qualitative methods are a good choice for short-term horizons, but they generally underperform quantitative methods for periods beyond a few months. Similarly, consider where you are in your business or product lifecycle. If you are ramping up or in a high-growth phase, you may be making costly investment decisions, so you need a method with a high degree of accuracy, but also relatively quick production time. When you are in a mature phase of your business, decisions about production and marketing are more routine. 
• How Much Data Do You Have? The less data you have, the more likely you will be to select a qualitative technique. If you have limited data, you will turn toward more simplistic models. A company that has collected a lot of data and has great confidence in its reliability can choose sophisticated quantitative models. 
• How Relevant Will History Be in Predicting the Future?  If your business has undergone big changes, such as launching major new products, experiencing large growth in the sales force, or introducing a different pricing structure, your past results will have less value as a guide to future performance. So, methods that diminish the weight put on historical data and qualitative techniques are a better choice.  
• In Terms of Time and Money, How Much Does It Cost to Produce the Forecast? How Does This Cost Compare to the Value of the Potential Benefits?You will need to make tradeoffs between the time and cost to build your forecast and the potential benefits, such as cost savings. Also, consider the potential cost of error. For example, suppose you are contemplating a high-cost sales-forecasting technique (one that takes a lot of data gathering, the creation of a custom model, and expensive staff and technology to produce). The forecast could allow your company to reduce the amount of inventory it holds. Weigh the value of inventory savings against the forecasting cost. If you reduce inventory and the forecast proves inaccurate, what are the potential costs of lost sales — because you did not stock adequately or because you did not cut back enough?  
• What Degree of Accuracy Do You Need?  Forecast accuracy rises with the cost and complexity of the methodology. Depending on how you will use the forecast, the size of your company, and the variability of your business, you may feel that it’s not cost effective to produce a maximum-accuracy forecast. If you are a giant global company, a fraction of a percentage point error in your sales forecast could represent many millions. So, the bigger the dollar values, the more meaningful every degree of enhanced accuracy becomes.
• How Complex Are the Factors That Will Drive the Forecast?   If your sales dynamic is straightforward — the more sunny days there are, the more beach umbrellas you sell at your beach kiosk — then building a sophisticated, AI-driven forecasting model will be overkill. “It's important not to spend time and energy developing a complex model, when a much simpler one will do the job,” says Nicholas. But when you are facing a subtle and complex interplay of variables, you need a technique that accounts for them. Suppose you have new products, changes in your marketing, and additional sales reps. A sophisticated model would allow you to forecast the net effects and also try out different scenarios in which the variables fluctuated.

Why Accuracy Is Important in Sales Forecasts

According to CSO Insights, 60 percent of forecasted deals do not close and 25 percent of sales managers are unhappy with the accuracy of their forecasts. Inaccuracy in sales forecasts causes problems for businesses and impacts performance. 

People throughout your company depend on your forecasts to make a multitude of decisions — from pay raises to real estate acquisitions. Let’s look at some of the important reasons to strive for accuracy:

• Early Warning: Your sales forecast helps you spot trouble early, like when revenues are not materializing as expected; the forecast also allows you to intervene and problem solve before this underperformance becomes a crisis.
• Decision Making: The forecast gives leaders confidence and a sound basis for deciding how much and where to spend or invest. Production planners, HR, and others will use the forecast.
• Goal Setting: You set achievable targets for sales reps when you have an accurate forecast. Goal setting prevents sales reps from getting discouraged by unrealistic expectations. Following this strategy also ensures that your commission and bonus scale are calibrated appropriately. 
• Customer Satisfaction: When you are prepared for the right level of demand, your company can improve its record of fulfilling orders on time and in full.
• Inventory Management: You will be more likely to have the right level of inventory if your sales forecasts are accurate. Making accurate predictions allows you to better manage your supply chain and order raw materials or parts in a timely fashion. You also gain more control over your pricing if you have the right amount of inventory. When you have to resort to discounting to get rid of excess inventory, your profitability suffers.

How to Improve Sales Forecast Accuracy and More Best Practices from Experts

Producing high-quality forecasts takes organizational commitment and long-term effort, and best practices will help improve accuracy.

”Sales forecasting is both an art and a science. Where companies tend to go wrong is relying too heavily on one or the other. You need a consistent process and reliable data,” says Charlene DeCesare, CEO of sales training and advisory firm Charlene Ignites .

She emphasizes five best practices:

• Ensure that the pipeline feeding the forecast is accurate. You don't need historical data to predict the future when you have a well-defined sales process.
• Everyone must use the CRM, and should enter notes and coding opportunities in a clear, consistent way. 
• Buyer behavior is a much more reliable predictor of future sales than gut feel. Challenge optimism that doesn't align with the applicable stage in the sales cycle or isn't supported by clear, mutually agreed-upon next steps.
• In general, buyer/seller behavior is the leading indicator to rely upon. Too many companies rely on results, which is actually the lagging indicator.
• Sales leadership can have a huge impact. Sales reps must be rewarded for both honesty and accuracy. Sales forecasting must be an individual, team, and company priority. 

Rob Stephens, a CPA whose firm CFO Perspective advises businesses on forecasts, adds: “A big planning mistake is spending too much of your precious time trying to find the one right scenario… Start with a range of reasonable forecasts based on solid fundamentals. For example, you may project from historical growth rates, customer indications of future sales, or projections of market growth. A company with a new product may need to extrapolate from existing products or early indications from potential customers. Use a higher-probability scenario as a beginning base scenario, but identify why the future may deviate from it.”

Common Mistakes and Pitfalls in Sales Forecasts

Sales pros say they see the same sales forecasting errors on a regular basis and that these often relate to letting the discipline of the forecasting process lapse. 

“The most common operational mistakes are basing forecasts on hope rather than evidence, ignoring repeated close date slippage, failing to take into account the historic forecast accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the salesperson concerned, and failing to hold salespeople accountable for the relative accuracy of their forecasts,” notes Bob Apollo, Founder of Inflexion-Point Strategy Partners, a sales training firm.  

“The most common cultural mistake is when sales leaders press salespeople to forecast a target number without any evidence or confidence that it will actually be achieved," he notes.

Evan Lorendo , Director of Revenue Accelerator, which advises service companies on revenue strategies, says he sees companies with monthly recurring revenue (MRR), such as software as a service (SaaS), frequently make mistakes in sales forecasting.

He gives the example of a company with an MRR product that wants to generate $120,000 in revenue a year. How much in new sales do they need each month? “Most of my clients say $10,000/month, but that is wrong. Because a client is paying on a monthly basis, a client that signs up in January is actually paying 12 times during the year. On the flip side, a client signing up in July will make six payments during the year,” he explains. 

That means there are a total of 78 potential payment configurations per year, not 12. The customer who buys in January will make 12 payments, but November’s buyer will make two. (12 + 11 + 10 + 9 + 8 + 7+ 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 78.)

“If you want to know how much you need to sell in new sales each month to hit that $120,000 goal, the answer is $1,539 ($120,000/78). That actually seems much more manageable, doesn't it? Based on poor forecasting, a miscalculation can turn off good salespeople who can't hit their quota,” he says.

KPIs for Sales Forecasting

As your sales forecasting improves, you reap bigger benefits, such as better planning and higher profits. So, you will want to assess and monitor your forecasting effort by using key performance indicators (KPIs).

Below are the main KPIs for sales forecasting. Some of them draw from statistics concepts, such as standard deviation, and computer applications and statistics guides can help you calculate them.

• Bias or Variance: This KPI tells how much the actual results deviated from the forecast over a given period of time. Calculate bias as an absolute number of dollars or units or as a percent of sales. A positive number means sales exceeded projections and a negative number indicates underperformance. Actual Units - Forecast Units = Bias
• Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): This metric describes the size of your forecast error in total units or dollars. You calculate how much the actual results deviated from the forecast average, add the deviations, and divide the result by the total number of data points.   
• Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): This is similar to MAD, but gives the forecast error as a percent of sales volume. 
• Tracking Signal: This is another expression of forecast error and looks at how the error rate varies among forecast values. Normally, you expect all forecast amounts to be wrong by about the same degree. If, from one data point to another, there is a large variation in the error rate, you need to rework your model.  Tracking Signal = Accumulated Forecast Errors ÷ Mean Absolute Deviation
• Forecast Value Added: This metric measures how much better the forecast was than simply using unadjusted historical data. If your forecasting effort got you closer to actual than the so-called naive forecast (i.e., using historical figures as your forecast), you have added positive value. You calculate this metric by comparing the MAPE of your forecast to the naive forecast.
• Linearity: This looks at how sales are paced over the course of the period. As your reps seek to meet quota, you might see a flurry of deals at the end of the quarter. Or, deals might be spread evenly across the time period. The most stable situation is a deal cadence or velocity that is constant. If expressed as a trend line, this stable situation would appear visually as a flat line. This pattern is called highly linear .

Application of Sales Forecasting

Your sales forecast obviously gives you an idea of how much you will sell in the future, but sales forecasting has other important use cases. Here are five ways you can apply your forecast to business questions:

• Sales Planning: As noted earlier, your sales plan encompasses your goals, tactics, and processes for achieving your sales forecast. As part of this plan, your sales forecast helps you decide if you need to hire more sales reps to achieve your forecast and if you need to put more energy and resources into marketing.
• Demand Planning: Demand planning is the process of forecasting how much product your customers will want to buy and making sure inventory aligns with that forecast. In ideal conditions, forecast demand and sales would be virtually the same. But, consider a scenario in which your new product becomes the hot gift of the holiday season. You forecast demand of 100,000 units (the number consumers will want to buy). A large shipment turns out to be defective, and the product is unsellable. So, you forecast sales of just 75,000 units (how much you will actually sell.)   
• Financial Planning: Your sales forecast is vital to the work of your finance department. The finance team will rely on the forecast to build a budget, manage overhead, and figure out long-term capital needs. 
• Operations Planning: The unit-sales numbers in your forecast are also important for operations planners. They will look at the production required to meet those sales and confirm that manufacturing capacity can accommodate them. They will want to know when sales are likely to rise or fall, so they can avoid excess inventory. A big increase in sales will also require operations managers to make changes in warehousing and distribution. Retailers may change the product mix at individual stores based on your sales forecast.
• Product Planning: The trends you foresee in sales will have big implications for product managers too. They will look at products that you forecast as top sellers for ideas about new products or product modifications they should introduce. A forecast of declining sales may signal it is time to discontinue or revamp a product.

Levels of Maturity in Sales Forecasting

Sales forecasts can be simply scribbled-down estimates, or they can be statistical masterpieces produced with the aid of the most sophisticated technology. The style you pursue relates in large part to your level of forecasting maturity (as well as the size and history of your business). 

Below is a description of the four levels of the sales forecasting maturity model:

• Level One: In the beginning stages of sales forecasting, the estimates are usually not very accurate and take a lot of time to produce. The forecasting process depends on reps’ best guesses, and sales managers spend a lot of time gathering these guesses by interviewing each rep. Then, they roll them up into a consolidated forecast. Inconsistent data collection and personal bias can skew the results. Sales managers use spreadsheets, which quickly become outdated, and the forecasts often reflect little more than intuition.
• Level Two: As your forecasting culture grows, you are probably still inputting data by hand, and the forecast is often inaccurate or outdated. But, a CRM solution is enabling your team to have a shared repository for contacts, sales activity, and deal status. Reps don’t see value in spending time contributing to the forecast, and quality is weak. Your CRM automatically aggregates those results, so you can start to examine trends and anomalies. But, your system is not very flexible, and forecasting remains unwieldy and resource intensive.
• Level Three: At this point, automation starts to offer radical improvements in sales forecasting. Solutions backed by artificial intelligence automatically bring together data from a multitude of sources, including email, CRM, marketing platforms, chat logs, and calendars. There is no more manual data entry, and sales managers gain increased visibility into the sales pipeline. KPIs become reliable and an important tool for monitoring performance.
• Level Four: Technology ensures sales that data is accurate and timely. AI and machine learning find patterns and correlations in your historical data, and predictive analytics offer robust forecasting. The forecasting model is continually refined. Forecast accuracy rises, and sales managers can focus more of their time on supporting reps and developing opportunities. These tools make it apparent when reps are sandbagging or being too optimistic, and accountability increases.

Advances in Sales Forecasting Methodologies

While sales forecasting has been around as long as private enterprise, the field continues to evolve, and researchers are looking at ways to improve sales forecasting methodologies. 

Indiana University Professor Douglas J. Dalrymple performed an influential study in 1987 that surveyed how businesses prepared sales forecasts. He found that qualitative and naive techniques predominated, but that early adopters were reducing errors by using computer analysis. At this time, PCs were starting to proliferate and come down in price. 

By 2008, Zhan-Li Sun and his researchers at the Institute of Textiles and Clothing at Hong Kong Polytechnic University were experimenting with an advanced AI-driven technique called extreme learning machine to see if they could improve forecasts for the volatile retail fashion industry by quantifying the influence of factors such as design on sales.  

Scholars F.L. Chen and T.Y. Ou at the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan took this further with a 2011 study. The study documented sales forecasting advances when combining extreme learning-machine, so-called Taguchi statistical methods for manufacturing quality with novel analysis theories that work on variables with imperfect information.

Features to Look for in a Sales Forecasting Tool

Paper forecasts and Excel spreadsheets quickly become cumbersome. Sales forecasting capability is available in CRM software, sales analytics and automation platforms, and AI-driven sales technology. These capabilities often overlap among these applications.

Here are some of the features to look for when evaluating a sales forecasting tool:

• Integrations with other software, such as ERP, CRM, marketing suites, contact management, calendars, and more
• Automated collection of data and sales rep activity
• Real-time reporting
• Robust data security
• Analytics and automated scoring of deals
• Insights on most promising deals
• Scenario modeling
• Lead scoring
• Automated forecast roll-ups or summaries by category and team
• Dashboards and graphic displays of KPIs
• Benchmarking
• Customizable forecasting algorithms
• Forecast auditing and error analysis

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• Sales forecasting: How to create a sale ...

Sales forecasting: How to create a sales forecast template (with examples)

A strong sales team is the key to success for most companies. They say a good salesperson can sell sand at the beach, but whether you’re selling products in the Caribbean or Antarctica, it all comes down to strategy. When you’re unsure if your current strategy is working, a sales forecast can help.

What is a sales forecast?

A sales forecast predicts future sales revenue using past business data. Your sales forecast can predict a number of different things, including the number of new sales for an existing product, the new customers you’ll gain, or the memberships you’ll sell in a given time period. These forecasts are then used during project planning to determine how much you should allocate towards new products and services. 

Why is sales forecasting important?

Sales forecasting helps you keep a finger on your business’s pulse. It sets the ground rules for a variety of business operations, including your sales strategy and project planning. Once you calculate your sales projections, you can use the results to assess your business health, predict cash flow, and adjust your plans accordingly.

An effective sales forecasting plan:

Predicts demand: When you have an idea of how many units you may sell, you can get a head start on production.

Helps you make smart investments: If you have future goals of expanding your business with new locations or products, knowing when you’ll have the income to do so is important. 

Contributes to goal setting: Your sales forecast can help you set goals outside of investments as well, like outshining competitors or hiring new team members.

Guides spending: Your sales forecast may be the wake-up call you need to set a budget and use cost control to reduce expenses.

Improves the sales process: You can change your current sales process based on the sales projections you’re unhappy with.

Highlights financial problems: Your sales forecast template will open your eyes to problem areas you may not have noticed otherwise. 

Helps with resource management: Do you have the resources you need to fill orders if it’s an accurate sales forecast? Your sales forecast can guide how you allocate and manage resources to hit targets.

When you have an accurate prediction of your future sales, you can use your projections to adjust your current sales process.

Sales forecasting methods

Sales forecasting is an important part of strategic business planning because it enables sales managers and teams to predict future sales and make informed decisions. But why are there multiple sales forecasting methods? Simply put, businesses vary in size, industry, and market dynamics, so no single methodology suits all.

Choosing the right sales forecasting method is more of an art than a science. It involves:

Analyzing your business size and industry

Assessing the available data and tools

Understanding your sales cycle's complexity

A few telltale signs that you've picked the correct approach include:

Improved accuracy in sales target predictions

Enhanced understanding of market trends

Better alignment with your business goals

Opportunity stage forecasting

Opportunity stage forecasting is a dynamic approach ideal for businesses using CRM systems like Salesforce. It assesses the likelihood of sales closing based on the stages of the sales pipeline. This method is particularly beneficial for sales organizations with a clearly defined sales process.

For example, a software company might use this method to forecast sales by examining the number of prospects in each stage of their funnel, from initial contact to final negotiation.

Pipeline forecasting method

The pipeline forecasting method is similar to opportunity stage forecasting but focuses more on the volume and quality of leads at each pipeline stage. It's particularly useful for businesses that rely heavily on sales forecasting tools and dashboards for decision-making.

A real estate agency could use it by examining the number of properties listed, the stage of negotiations, and the number of closings forecasted in the pipeline.

Length of sales cycle forecasting

Small businesses often prefer the length of sales cycle forecasting. It's straightforward and involves analyzing the duration of past sales cycles to predict future ones. This method is effective for businesses with consistent sales cycle lengths.

A furniture manufacturer, for instance, might use this method by analyzing the average time taken from initial customer contact to closing a sale in the past year.

Intuitive forecasting

Intuitive forecasting relies on the expertise and intuition of sales managers and their teams. It's less about spreadsheets and more about market research and understanding customer behavior. This method is often used with other, more data-driven approaches.

A boutique fashion store, for example, might use this method, relying on the owner's deep understanding of fashion trends and customer preferences.

Historical forecasting

Historical forecasting uses past performance data to predict future sales. This method is advantageous for businesses with ample historical sales data. It's less effective for new markets or rapidly changing industries.

An established book retailer could use historical data from previous years, considering seasonal trends and past marketing campaigns, to forecast next quarter's sales.

Multivariable analysis forecasting

Multivariable analysis forecasting is a more sophisticated method that's ideal for larger sales organizations. It analyzes factors like market trends, economic conditions, and marketing efforts to provide a holistic view of potential sales outcomes.

An automotive company, for example, could analyze factors like economic conditions, competitor activity, and past sales data to forecast future car sales.

How to calculate sales forecast

Sales forecasts determine how much you expect to do in sales for a given time frame. For example, let’s say you expect to sell 100 units in Q1 of fiscal year 2024. To calculate sales forecasts, you’ll use past data to predict future trends. 

When you’re first creating a forecast, it’s important to establish benchmarks that determine how much you normally sell of any given product to how many people. Compare historical sales data against sales quotas—i.e., how much you sold vs. how much you expected to sell. This type of analysis can help you set a baseline for what you expect to achieve every week, month, quarter, and so on.

For many companies, this means establishing a formula. The exact inputs will vary based on your products or services, but generally, you can use the following:

Sales forecast = Number of products you expect to sell x The value of each product

For example, if you sell SaaS products, your sales forecast might look something like this: 

SaaS FY24 Sales forecast = Number of expected subscribers x Subscription price

Ultimately, the sales forecasting process is a guess—but it’s an educated one. You’ll use the information you already have to create a data-driven forecasting model. How accurate your forecast is depends on your sales team. The sales team uses facts such as their prospects, current market conditions, and their sales pipeline. But they will also use their experience in the field to decide on final numbers for what they think will sell. Because of this, sales leaders are more likely to have better forecasting accuracy than new members of the sales team.

Sales forecast vs. sales goal

Your sales forecast is based on historical data and current market conditions. While you always hope your sales goals are attainable—and you can use data to estimate what your team is capable of—your goals might not line up directly with your forecast. This can be for a number of reasons, including wanting to create stretch goals that push your sales team beyond what they’ve done in the past or big, pie-in-the-sky goals that boost investor confidence.

How to create a sales forecast

There are different sales forecasting methods, and some are simpler than others. With the steps below, you’ll have a basic understanding of how to create a sales forecast template that you can customize to the method of your choice. 

1. Track your business data

Without details from your past sales, you won’t have anything to base your predictions on. If you don’t have past sales data, you can begin tracking sales now to create a sales forecast in the future. The data you’ll need to track includes:

Number of units sold per month

Revenue of each product by month

Number of units returned or canceled (so you can get an accurate sales calculation)

Other items you can track to make your predictions more accurate include:

Growth percentage

Number of sales representatives

Average sales cycle length

There are different ways to use these data points when forecasting sales. If you want to calculate your sales run rate, which is your projected revenue for the next year, use your revenue from the past month and multiply it by 12. Then, adjust this number based on other relevant data points, like seasonality.

Tip: The best way to track historical data is to use customer relationship management (CRM) software. When you have a CRM strategy in place, you can easily pull data into your sales forecast template and make quick projections.

2. Set your metrics

Before you perform the calculations in your sales forecast template, you need to decide what you’re measuring. The basic questions you should ask are:

What is the product or service you’re selling and forecasting for? Answering this question helps you decide what exactly you’re evaluating. For example, you can investigate future trends for a long-standing product to decide whether it’s worth continuing, or you can predict future sales for a new product. 

How far in the future do you want to make projections? You can decide to make projections for as little as six months or as much as five years in the future. The complexity of your sales forecast is up to you.

How much will you sell each product for, and how do you measure your products? Set your product’s metrics, whether they be units, hours, memberships, or something else. That way, you can calculate revenue on a price-per-unit basis.

How long is your sales cycle? Your sales cycle—also called a sales funnel—is how long it takes for you to make the average sale from beginning to end. Sales cycles are often monthly, quarterly, or yearly. Depending on the product you’re selling, your sales cycle may be unique. Steps in the sales cycle typically include:

Lead generation

Lead qualification

Initial contact

Making an offer

Negotiation

Closing the deal

Tip: You can still project customer growth versus revenue even if your company is in its early phases. If you don’t have enough historical data to use for your sales forecast template, you can use data from a company similar to yours in the market. 

3. Choose a forecasting method

While there are many forecasting methods to choose from, we’ll concentrate on two straightforward approaches to provide a clear understanding of how sales forecasting can be implemented efficiently. The top-down method starts with the total size of the market and works down, while the bottom-up method starts with your business and expands out.

Top-down method: To use the top-down method, start with the total size of the market—or total addressable market (TAM). Then, estimate how much of the market you think your business can capture. For example, if you’re in a large, oversaturated market, you may only capture 3% of the TAM. If the total addressable market is $1 billion, your projected annual sales would be $30 million. 

Bottom-up method: With the bottom-up method, you’ll estimate the total units your company will sell in a sales cycle, then multiply that number by your average cost per unit. You can expand out by adding other variables, like the number of sales reps, department expenses, or website views. The bottom-up forecasting method uses company data to project more specific results. 

You’ll need to choose one method to fill in your sales forecast template, but you can also try both methods to compare results.

Tip: The best forecasting method for you may depend on what type of business you’re running. If your company experiences little fluctuation in revenue, then the top-down forecasting method should work well. The top-down model can also work for new businesses that have little business data to work with. Bottom-up forecasting may be better for seasonal businesses or startups looking to make future budget and staffing decisions.

4. Calculate your sales forecast

You’ve already learned a basic way to calculate revenue using the top-down method. Below, you’ll see another way to estimate your projected sales revenue on an annual scale.

Divide your sales revenue for the year so far by the number of months so far to calculate your average monthly sales rate.

Multiply your average monthly sales rate by the number of months left in the year to calculate your projected sales revenue for the rest of the year.

Add your total sales revenue so far to your projected sales revenue for the rest of the year to calculate your annual sales forecast.

A more generalized way to estimate your future sales revenue for the year is to multiply your total sales revenue from the previous year.

Example: Let’s say your company sells a software application for $300 per unit and you sold 500 units from January to March. Your sales revenue so far is $150,000 ($300 per unit x 500 units sold). You’re three months into the calendar year, so your average monthly sales rate is $50,000 ($150,000 / 3 months). That means your projected sales revenue for the rest of the year is $450,000 ($50,000 x 9 months).

5. Adjust for external factors

A sales forecast predicts future revenue by making assumptions about your growth rate based on past success. But your past success is only one component of your growth rate. There are external factors outside of your control that can affect sales growth—and you should consider them if you want to make accurate projections. 

Some external factors you can adjust your calculations around include:

Inflation rate: Inflation is how much prices increase over a specific time period, and it usually fluctuates based on a country’s overall economic state. You can take your annual sales forecast and factor in inflation rate to ensure you’re not projecting a higher or lower number of sales than the economy will permit.

The competition: Is your market becoming more competitive as time goes on? For example, are you selling software during a tech boom? If so, assess whether your market share will shrink because of rising competition in the coming year(s).

Market changes: The market can shift as people change their behavior. Your audience may spend an average of six hours per day on their phones in one year. In the next year, mental health awareness may cause phone usage to drop. These changes are hard to predict, so you must stay on top of market news.

Industry changes: Industry changes happen when new products and technologies come on the market and make other products obsolete. One instance of this is the invention of AI technology.

Legislation: Although not as common, changes in legislation can affect the way companies sell their products. For example, vaping was a multi-million dollar industry until laws banned the sale of vape products to people under the age of 21. 

Seasonality: Many industries experience seasonality based on how human behavior and human needs change with the seasons. For example, people spend more time inside during the winter, so they may be on their computers more. Retail stores may also experience a jump in sales around Christmas time.

Tip: You can create a comprehensive sales plan to set goals for team members. Aside from revenue targets and training milestones, consider assigning each of these external factors to your team members so they can keep track of essential information. That way, you’ll have your bases covered on anything that may affect future sales growth. 

Sales forecast template

Below you’ll see an example of a software company’s six-month sales forecast template for two products. Product one is a software application, and product two is a software accessory. 

In this sales forecast template, the company used past sales data to fill in each month. They projected their sales would increase by 10% each month because of a 5% increase in inflation and because they gained 5% more of the market. They kept their price per unit the same as the previous year.

Putting both products in the same chart can help the company see that their lower-cost product—the software accessory—brings in more revenue than their higher-cost product. The company can then use this insight to create more low-cost products in the future.

Sales forecast examples

Sales forecasting is not a one-size-fits-all process. It varies significantly across industries and business sizes. Understanding this through practical examples can help businesses identify the most suitable forecasting method for their unique needs.

Sales forecasting example 1: E-commerce

In the e-commerce sector, where trends can shift rapidly, intuitive forecasting is often useful for making quick, informed decisions.

Scenario: An e-commerce retailer specializing in fashion accessories is planning for the upcoming festive season.

Trend analysis phase: The team spends the first week analyzing customer feedback and current fashion trends on social media, using intuitive forecasting to predict which products will be popular.

Inventory planning phase: Based on these insights, the next three weeks are dedicated to selecting and ordering inventory, focusing on products predicted to be in high demand.

Sales monitoring and adjustment: As the holiday season approaches, the team closely monitors early sales data, ready to adjust their inventory and marketing strategies based on real-time sales performance.

This approach allows the e-commerce retailer to stay agile , adapting quickly to market trends and customer preferences.

Sales forecasting example 2: Software development

For a software development company, especially one working with B2B clients, opportunity stage forecasting can help predict sales and manage the sales pipeline effectively.

Scenario: A software development company is launching a new project management tool.

Lead generation and qualification phase: In the initial month, the sales team focuses on generating leads, qualifying them, and categorizing potential clients based on their progress through the sales pipeline.

Proposal and negotiation phase: For the next two months, the team works on creating tailored proposals for high-potential leads and enters negotiation stages, using opportunity stage forecasting to predict the likelihood of deal closures.

Closure and review: In the final phase, the team aims to close deals, review the accuracy of their initial forecasts, and refine their approach based on the outcomes.

Opportunity stage forecasting enables the software company to efficiently manage its sales pipeline , focusing resources on the most promising leads and improving their chances of successful deal closures.

Pair your sales forecast with a strong sales process

A sales forecast is only one part of the larger sales picture. As your team members acquire leads and close deals, you can track them through the sales pipeline. A solid sales plan is the foundation of future success.  

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How to Create a Sales Forecast

11 min. read

Updated October 27, 2023

Business owners are often afraid to forecast sales. But, you shouldn’t be. Because you can successfully forecast your own business’s sales.

You don’t have to be an MBA or CPA. It’s not about some magic right answer that you don’t know. It’s not about training you don’t have. It doesn’t take spreadsheet modeling (much less econometric modeling) to estimate units and price per unit for future sales. You just have to know your own business. 

Forecasting isn’t about seeing into the future

Sales forecasting is much easier than you think and much more useful than you imagine.

I was a vice president of a market research firm for several years, doing expensive forecasts, and I saw many times that there’s nothing better than the educated guess of somebody who knows the business well. All those sophisticated techniques depend on data from the past — and the past, by itself, isn’t the best predictor of the future. You are.

It’s not about guessing the future correctly. We’re human; we don’t do that well. Instead, it’s about setting down assumptions, expectations, drivers, tracking, and management. It’s about doing your job, not having precognitive powers. 

• Successful forecasting is driven by regular reviews

What really matters is that you review and revise your forecast regularly. Spending should be tied to sales, so the forecast helps you budget and manage. You measure the value of a sales forecast like you do anything in business, by its measurable business results.

That also means you should not back off from forecasting because you have a new product, or new business, without past data. Lay out the sales drivers and interdependencies, to connect the dots, so that as you review plan-versus-actual results every month, you can easily make course corrections.

If you think sales forecasting is hard, try running a business without a forecast. That’s much harder.

Your sales forecast is also the backbone of your business plan . People measure a business and its growth by sales, and your sales forecast sets the standard for  expenses , profits, and growth. The sales forecast is almost always going to be the first set of numbers you’ll track for plan versus actual use, even if you do no other numbers.

If nothing else, just forecast your sales, track plan-versus-actual results, and make corrections — that process alone, just the sales forecast and tracking is in itself already business planning. To get started on building your forecast follow these steps.

And if you run a subscription-based business, we have a guide dedicated to building a sales forecast for that business model.

• Step 1: Set up your lines of sales

Most forecasts show several distinct lines of sales. Ideally, your sales lines match your accounting, but not necessarily in the same level of detail.   

For example, a restaurant ought not to forecast sales for each item on the menu. Instead, it forecasts breakfasts, lunches, dinners, and drinks, summarized. And a bookstore ought not to forecast sales by book, and not even by topic or author, but rather by lines of sales such as hardcover, softcover, magazines, and maybe categories (such as fiction, non-fiction, travel, etc.) if that works.

Always try to set your streams to match your accounting, so you can look at the difference between the forecast and actual sales later. This is excellent for real business planning. It makes the heart of the process, the regular review, and revision, much easier. The point is better management.

For instance, in a bicycle retail store business plan, the owner works with five lines of sales, as shown in the illustration here.  

In this sample case, the revenue includes new bikes, repair, clothing, accessories, and a service contract. The bookkeeping for this retail store tracks sales in those same five categories.

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• Step 2: Forecast line by line

There are many ways to forecast a line of sales.

The method for each row depends on the business model

Among the main methods are:.

• Unit sales : My personal favorite. Sales = units times price. You set an average price and forecast the units. And of course, you can change projected pricing over time. This is my favorite for most businesses because it gives you two factors to act on with course corrections: unit sales, or price.
• Service units : Even though services don’t sell physical units, most sell billable units, such as billable hours for lawyers and accountants, or trips for transportations services, engagements for consultants, and so forth.
• Recurring charges : Subscriptions. For each month or year, it has to forecast new signups, existing monthly charges, and cancellations. Estimates depend on both new signups and cancellations, which is often called “churn.”
• Revenue only : For those who prefer to forecast revenue by the stream as just the money, without the extra information of breaking it into units and prices.

Most sales forecast rows are simple math

For a business plan, I recommend you make your sales forecast a detailed look at the next 12 months and then broadly cover two years after that. Here’s how to approach each method of line-by-line forecasting.

Start with units if you can

For unit sales, start by forecasting units month by month, as shown here below for the new bike’s line of sales in the bicycle shop plan:

I recommend looking at the visual as you forecast the units because most of us can see trends easier when we look at the line, as shown in the illustration, rather than just the numbers. You can also see the numbers in the forecast near the bottom. The first year, fiscal 2021 in this forecast, is the sum of those months.

Estimate price assumptions

With a simple revenue-only assumption, you do one row of units as shown in the above illustration, and you are done. The units are dollars, or whatever other currency you are using in your forecast. In this example, the new bicycle product will be sold for an average of $550.00. 

That’s a simplifying assumption, taking the average price, not the detailed price for each brand or line. Garrett, the shop owner, uses his past results to determine his actual average price for the most recent year. Then he rounds that estimate and adds his own judgment and educated guess on how that will change. 

Multiply price times units

Multiplying units times the revenue per unit generates the sales forecast for this row. So for example the $18,150 shown for October of 2020 is the product of 33 units times $550 each. And the $21,450 shown for the next month is the product of 39 units times $550 each. 

Subscription models are more complicated

Lately, a lot of businesses offer their buyers subscriptions, such as monthly packages, traditional or online newspapers, software, and even streaming services. All of these give a business recurring revenues, which is a big advantage. 

For subscriptions, you normally estimate new subscriptions per month and canceled subscriptions per month, and leave a calculation for the actual subscriptions charged. That’s a more complicated method, which demands more details. 

For that, you can refer to detailed discussions on subscription forecasting in How to Forecast Sales for a Subscription Business .

• But how do you know what numbers to put into your sales forecast?

The math may be simple, yes, but this is predicting the future, and humans don’t do that well. So, don’t try to guess the future accurately for months in advance.

Instead, aim for making clear assumptions and understanding what drives your sales, such as web traffic and conversions, in one example, or the direct sales pipeline and leads, in another. Review results every month, and revise your forecast. Your educated guesses become more accurate over time.

Experience in the field is a huge advantage

In a normal ongoing business, the business owner has ample experience with past sales. They may not know accounting or technical forecasting, but they know their business. They are aware of changes in the market, their own business’s promotions, and other factors that business owners should know. They are comfortable making educated guesses.

If you don’t personally have the experience, try to find information and make guesses based on the experience of an employee,  your mentor , or others you’ve spoken within your field.

Use past results as a guide

Use results from the recent past if your business has them. Start a forecast by putting last year’s numbers into next year’s forecast, and then focus on what might be different this year from next.

Do you have new opportunities that will make sales grow? New marketing activities, promotions? Then increase the forecast. New competition, and new problems? Nobody wants to forecast decreasing sales, but if that’s likely, you need to deal with it by cutting costs or changing your focus.

Look for drivers

To forecast sales for a new restaurant, first, draw a map of tables and chairs and then estimate how many meals per mealtime at capacity, and in the beginning. It’s not a random number; it’s a matter of how many people come in.

To forecast sales for a new mobile app, you might get data from the Apple and Android mobile app stores about average downloads for different apps. A good web search might also reveal some anecdotal evidence, blog posts, and news stories, about the ramp-up of existing apps that were successful.

Get those numbers and think about how your case might be different. Maybe you drive downloads with a website, so you can predict traffic from past experience and then assume a percentage of web visitors who will download the app.

• Estimate direct costs

Direct costs are also called the cost of goods sold (COGS) and per-unit costs. Direct costs are important because they help calculate gross margin, which is used as a basis for comparison in financial benchmarks, and are an instant measure (sales less direct costs) of your underlying profitability.

For example, I know from benchmarks that an average sporting goods store makes a 34 percent gross margin. That means that they spend $66 on average to buy the goods they sell for $100.

Not all businesses have direct costs. Service businesses supposedly don’t have direct costs, so they have a gross margin of 100 percent. That may be true for some professionals like accountants and lawyers, but a lot of services do have direct costs. For example, taxis have gasoline and maintenance. So do airlines.

A normal sales forecast includes units, price per unit, sales, direct cost per unit, and direct costs. The math is simple, with the direct costs per unit related to total direct costs the same way price per unit relates to total sales.

Multiply the units projected for any time period by the unit direct costs, and that gives you total direct costs. And here too, assume this view is just a cut-out, it flows to the right. In this example, Garrett the shop owner projected the direct costs of new bikes based on the assumption of 49 percent of sales.

Given the unit forecast estimate, the calculation of units times direct costs produces the forecast shown in the illustration below for direct costs for that product. So therefore the projected direct costs for new bikes in October is $8,894, which is 49% of the projected sales for that month, $18,150.

• Never forecast in a vacuum

Never think of your sales forecast in a vacuum. It flows from the strategic action plans with their assumptions,  milestones , and metrics. Your marketing milestones affect your sales. Your business offering milestones affect your sales.

When you change milestones—and you will, because all business plans change—you should change your sales forecast to match.

• Timing matters

Your sales are supposed to refer to when the ownership changes hands (for products) or when the service is performed (for services). It isn’t a sale when it’s ordered, or promised, or even when it’s contracted.

With proper  accrual accounting , it is a sale even if it hasn’t been paid for. With so-called cash-based accounting, by the way, it isn’t a sale until it’s paid for. Accrual is better because it gives you a more accurate picture, unless you’re very small and do all your business, both buying and selling, with cash only.

I know that seems simple, but it’s surprising how many people decide to do something different. The penalty for doing things differently is that then you don’t match the standard, and the bankers, analysts, and investors can’t tell what you meant.

This goes for direct costs, too. The direct costs in your monthly  profit and loss statement  are supposed to be just the costs associated with that month’s sales. Please notice how, in the examples above, the direct costs for the sample bicycle store are linked to the actual unit sales.

• Live with your assumptions

Sales forecasting is not about accurately guessing the future. It’s about laying out your assumptions so you can manage changes effectively as sales and direct costs come out different from what you expected. Use this to adjust your sales forecast and improve your business by making course corrections to deal with what is working and what isn’t.

I believe that even if you do nothing else, by the time you use a sales forecast and review plan versus actual results every month, you are already managing with a business plan . You can’t review actual results without looking at what happened, why, and what to do next.

Tim Berry is the founder and chairman of Palo Alto Software , a co-founder of Borland International, and a recognized expert in business planning. He has an MBA from Stanford and degrees with honors from the University of Oregon and the University of Notre Dame. Today, Tim dedicates most of his time to blogging, teaching and evangelizing for business planning.

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How to Do a Sales Forecast for Your Business the Right Way

Posted june 8, 2021 by noah parsons.

New entrepreneurs frequently ask me for advice about forecasting their sales . These entrepreneurs are always optimistic about the future of their new company. However, when it comes to the details, most aren’t sure how to predict future sales and how much money they’re going to make.

It’s an intimidating task, looking into the future. The good thing is, none of us are fortune tellers and none of us know any more about your new business than you do. (If you do happen to be able to see into the future, please just skip the whole startup thing and go play the stock market. It’ll be much easier and make you richer!)

So, my advice is always to just take a deep breath and relax. You’re as well equipped as everyone else to put together a credible, reasonably accurate forecast. Let’s dive right in and figure it out.

What is sales forecasting?

Sales forecasting is the process of estimating future sales with the goal of better informing your decisions. A forecast is typically based on any combination of past sales data, industry benchmarks, or economic trends. It’s a method designed to help you better manage your workforce, ash flow, and any other resources that may affect revenue and sales

It’s typically easier for established businesses to create more accurate sales forecasts based on previous sales data. Newer businesses, on the other hand, will have to rely on market research, competitive benchmarks, and other forms of interest to establish a baseline for sales numbers. 

Why is sales forecasting important?

Your sales forecast is the foundation of the financial story that you are creating for your business. Once you have your sales forecast complete, you’ll be able to easily create your profit and loss statement , c ash flow statement, and balance sheet.

Sales forecasts help you set goals

But beyond just setting the stage for a complete financial forecast, your sales forecast is really all about setting goals for your company . You’re looking to answer questions like:

• What do you hope to achieve in the next month? Year? 5-years? 
• How many customers do you hope to have next month and next year?
• How much will each customer hopefully spend with your company?

Your sales forecast will help you answer all of these questions and potentially any others that involve the future of your business.

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Sales forecasts inform investors

Having a solid sales forecast also provides a picture of your performance and performance milestones for potential investors. Like you, they want to be sure you have established goals and a firm trajectory for your business laid out. The more detailed, organized, and up-to-date your forecast is, the better you explain the position of your business to third parties and even employees.

How to use your sales forecast for budgeting

Your sales forecast is also your guide to how much you should be spending. Assuming you want to run a profitable business , you’ll use your sales forecast to guide what you should be spending on marketing to acquire new customers and how much you should be spending on operations and administration. 

Now, you don’t always need to be profitable, especially if you are trying to expand aggressively. But, you’ll eventually need your expenses to be less than your sales in order to turn a profit.

How detailed should your forecast be?

When you’re forecasting your sales , the first thing you should do is figure out what you should create a forecast for. You don’t want want to be too generic and just forecast sales for your entire company. On the other hand, you don’t want to create a forecast for every individual product or service that you sell.

For example, if you’re starting a restaurant, you don’t want to create forecasts for each item on the menu. Instead, you should focus on broader categories like lunch, dinner, and drinks. If you’re starting a clothing shop, forecast the key categories of clothing that you sell, like outerwear, casual wear, and so on.

You’ll probably want between three to ten categories covering the types of sales that you do. More than ten is going to be a lot of work to forecast and fewer than three probably means that you haven’t divided things up quite enough.

You really can’t get this wrong. After all, it’s just forecasting and you can always come back and adjust your categories later. Just pick a few to get started and move on.

Which forecasting model is best? Top-down or bottom-up?

Before they have much historical sales data, lots of startups make this mistake—and it’s a big one. They forecast “from the top down.” What that means is that they figure out the total size of the market ( TAM, or total addressable market ) and then decide that they will capture a small percentage of that total market.

For example, in 2015, more than 1.4 billion smartphones were sold worldwide. It’s pretty tempting for a startup to say that they’re going to get 1 percent of that total market. After all, 1 percent is such a tiny little number, it’s got to be believable, right?

The problem is that this kind of guessing is not based on any kind of reality. Sure, it looks like it might be credible on the surface, but you have to dig deeper. What’s driving those sales? How are people finding out about this new smartphone company? Of the people that find out about the new company, how many are going to buy?

So, instead of forecasting “from the top-down,” do a “bottom-up” forecast. Just like the name suggests, bottom-up forecasting is more of an educated guess, starting at the bottom and working up to a forecast.

Start by thinking about how many potential customers you might be able to make contact with; this could be through advertising, sales calls, or other marketing methods. This is your SOM (your “share of the market”), the subset of your 1 percent of the market that you will realistically reach—particularly in the first few years of your business. This is your target market .

Of the people you can reach, how many do you think you’ll be able to bring in the door or get onto your website? And finally, of the people that come in the door, get on the phone, or visit your site, how many will buy?

Here’s an example:

• 10,000 people see my company’s ad online
• 1,000 people click from the ad to my website
• 100 people end up making a purchase

Obviously, these are all nice round numbers, but it should give you an idea of how bottom-up forecasting works.

The last step of the bottom-up forecasting method is to think about the average amount that each of those 100 people in our example ends up spending. On average, do they spend $20? $100? It’s O.K. to guess here, and the best way to refine your guess is to go out and talk to your potential customers and interview them. You’ll be surprised how accurate a number you can get with a few simple interviews.

How to create a sales forecast

Keep in mind that your sales forecast is an estimate of the number of goods and services you believe you can sell over a period of time. This will also include the cost to produce and sell those goods and services, as well as the estimated profit you’ll come away with.

We’ll dive into specific methods, assumptions, and questions you’ll need to ask in order to build a viable sales forecast. But to start, here are the general steps you’ll need to take to create a sales forecast:

• List out the goods and services you sell
• Estimate how much of each you expect to sell
• Define the unit price or dollar value of each good or service sold
• Multiply the number sold by the price
• Determine how much it will cost to produce and sell each good or service
• Multiply this cost by the estimated sales volume
• Subtract the total cost from the total sales

This is a super basic rundown of what is included in your sales forecast to give you an idea of what to expect. For example, you may find the need to aggregate similar items into unified categories, if you sell a large variety of items. And if at all possible, try to keep your forecasted items grouped similarly to how they appear on your accounting statements to make updates easier.

Check out this video for a quick overview of how to forecast sales:

Now let’s dive into some specific elements of your forecast you’ll need to define ahead of time.

Should you forecast in units or dollars?

Let’s start by talking about “unit” sales.

A “unit” is simply a stand-in for whatever it is that you are selling. A single lunch at a restaurant would be a unit. An hour of consulting work is also a unit. The word “unit” is just a generic way to talk about whatever it is that you are selling.

Now that’s out of the way, let’s talk about why you should forecast by units.

Units help you think about the number of products, hours, meals, and so on, that you are selling. It’s easier to think about sales this way rather than to think just in dollars (or yen, or pounds, or rand, etc.).

With a dollar-based forecast, you are only thinking about the total amount of money that you’ll make in a given month, rather than the details of the number of units that you are selling and the average price you are selling each unit for.

To forecast by units, you predict how many units you’re going to sell each month—using the bottom-up method of course. Then, you figure out what the average price is going to be for each unit. Multiply those two numbers together and you have the total sales you plan on making each month.

For example, if you plan on selling 1,000 units at $20 each, you’ll make $20,000.

When you forecast by units, you have a couple of different variables to play with: What if I’m able to sell more units? What if I raise or lower my prices?

Also, there’s another benefit: At the end of a month of sales, I can look back at my forecast and see how I did compared to the forecast in greater detail. Did I meet my goals because I sold more units? Or did I sell for a higher price than I thought I would? This level of detail helps you guide your business and grow it moving forward.

Sales forecast assumptions

One thing to remember is that your sales forecast is built on assumptions. You’re not predicting the future, but aggregating information to help define your future outlook. These assumptions are always changing, meaning that you’ll need to have a pulse on the following:  

Market conditions

Having a general understanding of the macro effects on your business can help you better predict overall growth. A growing or shrinking market can either provide a low or high ceiling for potential sales increases. So, you need to understand how your business can react to any changes.

What does the broader market look like? Is the economy slowing or growing? Is the industry you operate in seeing an influx of competition? Maybe there’s a labor or material shortage? Are there new customers you now have access to?

Products and services

You may find yourself making regular changes to your products and services. This can be sales factors that impact the customer, or production factors that impact the overall cost. 

Are you making any changes or updates to current offerings? Are you launching a new product or service that compliments or disrupts your existing sales? Are you adjusting prices or sales channels? Are you able to decrease the cost of production? Or are expenses rising due to material, labor, or other production costs?

Seasonality

Depending on what you’re selling, you may find dips or increases in sales at specific times during the year. This seasonality may have to do with the weather, holidays, product/feature releases, or a number of other predictable factors. 

If you have been operating for a while, you can likely look at your accounting data to identify any trends. If you’re a new business look to your competitors to see how they act during specific times of the year to help you identify these trends earlier on.

Marketing efforts

How much you spend on marketing, and even your messaging may have an impact on your overall sales. Make sure that you connect any performance changes to marketing efforts that may affect your performance.

Are you launching a new marketing campaign? Are you spending more or less on advertising? Are you adjusting your targeting for digital ads? Are you branching out or removing specific marketing channels from your overall strategy?

Regulatory changes

You may find that specific laws or regulations directly impact your industry. It’s difficult to anticipate what legislation will provide a negative or positive impact, and just how often this type of regulatory change may occur. The best thing you can do is keep your ear to the ground, and be ready to adjust expenses or sales when any changes appear to make traction.

How far forward should you forecast?

I recommend that you forecast monthly for 12 months into the future and then just develop an annual sales forecast for another three to five years.

The further your forecast into the future, the less you’re going to know and the less benefit it’s going to have for you. After all, the world is going to change, your business is going to change, and you’ll be updating your forecast to reflect those changes.

12 months from now is far enough into the future to guess. You’ll have to update your forecasts regularly with actual performance to help keep them accurate. 

And don’t forget, all forecasts are wrong—and that’s O.K. Your forecast is just your best guess at what’s going to happen. As you learn more about your business and your customers, you can change and adjust your forecast. It’s not set in stone.

Why using visuals will make forecasting easier

My final word of advice is to make sure that you graph your monthly sales with a chart.

A chart will make it easy to see how your sales might dip during a slow period of the year and then grow again during your peak season. A chart will also highlight potentially unreasonable guesses at your sales growth. If for example, you show a big jump in sales from one month to the next, you should be able to back this up with a strategy that’s going to deliver those sales.

Adjust your forecasts based on actual results

Your sales forecast isn’t done when you start sharing it with lenders and investors. Instead, smart businesses use their sales forecast to measure their progress and ensure that they’re on the right track. Their sales forecast becomes a live forecast . An up-to-date management tool that helps them run their business better.

The easiest way to convert your sales forecast into a management tool is to have a monthly financial review meeting where you look at your business’s finances. You shouldn’t just look at your accounting system, though. You should compare the numbers from your accounting software to your forecast and see if you’re on track. 

Are you exceeding your goals? Or maybe you’re falling a little bit short. Either way, knowing if you’re meeting your goals or not will help you determine if you need to make some shifts in strategy. This way, your business numbers drive your strategy.

Forecasting is easier with LivePlan

Tools like LivePlan can help with this. LivePlan uses a smart dashboard to automatically compare your forecast to your numbers from your accounting system—no cutting and pasting or complicated spreadsheets required. And with LivePlan’s LiveForecast feature , you can update the forecasts within your Profit and Loss Statement, with the push of a button. 

This allows you to spend less time updating and more time analyzing performance to make better decisions. In fact, the LiveForecast feature allows you to expand the details of your performance and identify the variance in performance within your statements. You’ll know your current cash position and the impact on projected year-end totals at a glance. It provides you with enough information to then explore the dashboard with questions and potential steps in mind.

Sales forecasting isn’t as difficult as you think

Just remember that sales forecasting doesn’t have to be hard. Anyone can do it and you, as an entrepreneur, are the most qualified to do it for your business. You know your customers, and you know your market, so you can forecast your sales.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in March 2016, and was updated for 2021.

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Noah Parsons

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How to create a sales forecast for your small business

May 21, 2024 | 7 minute read

What you know about tomorrow can help you make better decisions about running your small business today. A sales forecast can be a helpful tool in estimating future sales, so you can take that information into account in your planning. Simply put, a sales forecast estimates the quantity of goods and services you can reasonably expect to sell over a specified period, the cost of those goods and services and the potential profit. It’s based on your sales in the past, industry benchmarks and market conditions. 

A sales forecast is an invaluable tool for better  managing your cash flow , spending, staffing and more. Once you complete your forecast, you’ll have a better sense of what’s driving your revenues and profits, know where to put your time and resources and be able to identify efforts that are not fueling growth so you can consider eliminating them. 

Why sales forecasting is important

A sales forecast helps you understand your financial position. It can be a good starting point for setting goals and provides guidance in many areas of your business, such as planning for new hires, purchasing inventory and equipment, knowing when to preserve cash, increasing your marketing budget or alerting you that you need to find new  ways to make more money . It can also help you illustrate your business’s potential to investors.

What factors impact a sales forecast?

A forecast is really an educated guess. There are any number of conditions that might shake up your projections, such as new laws and regulations. A downturn in the economy could mean a change in business conditions, making it harder to get credit. A dip in consumer confidence could lead to less spending on your company’s goods and services. New competition in your market, a drop in customer satisfaction or extreme weather (a major storm that essentially shuts down a city for a few days, for example) could all make a difference in what you thought was going to happen. Something like seasonality can also impact your forecast. Internal factors like new production processes and procedures can also keep you from hitting your target. 

Sales forecasting methods

There are several methods to creating a sales forecast. Here are three that many small businesses use:

Historical forecasts

This method is based on your business’s past performance. If you’ve been in business for a year or more, you can look back at data by the week, month, quarter or year. If you’ve launched your business recently, this option won’t work well because you won’t have enough data available. 

Bottom-up forecasts

To come up with these forecasts, you must project the number of units you will sell, then multiply that figure by the average cost per unit. If you run a larger small business, you can also include metrics like the number of locations, sales representatives or online interactions. The rationale behind a bottom-up sales forecast is to begin with the smallest components of the forecast and build up from there. The advantage of this type of forecast is that if any variables change (like cost per item or number of reps), the forecast is easy to adjust. 

Top-down sales forecasts

Start with the total size of the market and estimate what percentage of the market the business can capture. If the size of a market is $20 million, for example, a company may estimate it can win 10% of that market, making its sales forecast $2 million for the year. If you’re a natural optimist, it’s a good idea to ask an advisor to provide a reality check on the percentage of customers in your market that you can reasonably expect to attract and serve so that your projections are more accurate. 

How to create a sales forecast

Once you’ve selected a sales forecasting method, you’ll want to take several steps.

1. List the goods and services you sell

In a sales forecast, you’ll want to account for each product or service that you are selling so your forecast is accurate. 

2. Quantify your sales

Each sales forecasting method has its own way of estimating future sales: 

In  historical forecasting , you will need to project the quantity of each product or service you will sell and multiply the unit price by that number. In this type of forecasting, you can base your estimate on the sales figure you brought in last month as long as nothing major has changed in the marketplace. So, if you sold $50,000 worth of your product in July, you might estimate selling $50,000 worth in August. 

In  bottom-up forecasts , you must first estimate the total number of orders that customers will place for your products or services through your website, social media channels and other places you make sales. Then you estimate the average price minus any discounts you offer. Finally, you must multiply the estimated number of orders for each item by the average price to get estimated revenue. 

In  top-down forecasts , you start by estimating the total market for each item you sell. For example, if you were lucky enough to capture 100% of the sales, how much would you have sold? Then project how much of that market you can realistically capture. So, for instance, if the total addressable market for what you sell is $1 million, and you capture 7% of that with your product, your estimated sales will be $70,000. 

3. Make adjustments

Some owners adjust their forecasts to reflect projected market conditions, regulatory changes, new marketing efforts and other variables.

4. Subtract costs

Business owners will typically subtract the costs of creating each good or service they sell from their estimated sales forecast to understand how much profit would be generated from sales. Let’s say you sell a backyard game you invented by outsourcing the manufacturing to a local factory. You might subtract  overhead expenses , such as paying the factory and buying materials, from your projected revenue to anticipate how much money would be left over as profit. Or if you run a social media agency that has taken on new clients who’ve hired you on retainer, you might subtract costs, such as paying freelancers to write social media posts and subscribing to a website that provides stock photos, to get a clearer picture of future profits. 

Tools for sales forecasting

If you haven’t done so already, you might want to consider software to help with sales forecasting. 

Sales forecasting software

Sales forecasting software can use historical business data and trends to create a report of expected sales revenue. Forecast reports can compare sales targets with actual sales. 

Ideally, sales software can help you answer questions like: 

What is your expected revenue? 

Which forecasting method produces the most accurate forecast for your business? 

How did actual sales compare with expected sales?

Sales pipeline forecasting software

With sales pipeline forecasting software, you’ll get an analysis of existing opportunities and a calculation of your success rate in pursuing them, helping you prioritize your efforts. This method focuses on pipeline management and calculates a historical win-rate percentage based on the value and age of the opportunity and the sales representative working on it. Some software programs include features that will give you the ability to view pipeline activity and internal sales data or save you time, letting you integrate information from third-party sales software, for instance. You can create sales forecasts using software such as QuickBooks, Salesforce Sales Cloud, Zoho CRM and Pipedrive.

Historical sales forecasting software

Historical sales forecasting software analyzes previous company performance to calculate a mean (or average) sales level you can expect for the following month, quarter or year. It emphasizes historical trends and seasonality of products and services sold, but it does not consider the opportunities in your pipeline. This software is ideal for small businesses that don’t have big swings in their monthly sales. 

Bottom line

Your sales forecast can be a vital tool as you make plans to grow your business or adjust to challenges. By comparing your actual performance to your forecasts, you’ll be able to get a clear handle on your success and failures, fine-tune your strategies and capitalize on what is working for you so you can keep your business moving to the next level. 

Explore more

Cash flow management basics for small businesses

How to write an effective business plan

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6 Ways to Create an Effective Sales Forecast

To be prepared for your company's future, you need to be able to properly forecast what your sales are going to be.

Table of Contents

In business, you’re always selling something. Even if your company is the furthest thing from a storefront with cash registers and credit card readers — say, a consultancy that charges by the hour — you make a sale every time you earn money by providing goods or services. Of course, you also incur certain expenses to make these sales, so you’ll need to know ahead of time whether you’ll make enough sales to cover your costs. That’s where sales forecasting comes in.

What is sales forecasting?

Sales forecasting is the use of current and previous sales data to predict your team’s sales activity during an upcoming monthly, quarterly, semiannual or annual period. You can use sales forecasts to identify internal or external sales issues and resolve them with enough time remaining to reach sales goals .

Because a sales forecast is a prediction, it relies on current knowledge to preview upcoming changes. As such, the following factors influence sales forecasts:

• Your industry’s recent growth or contraction rates
• The economy in general
• Your competition’s sales of similar items
• Your newest product or service launches
• Fluctuations in your usual operating costs or sales prices
• New regulations restricting your usual operations
• Your company’s marketing activities

Although sales forecasts extrapolate from current data, they are primarily concerned with future conditions. As a result, they constitute an integral part of your company’s larger sales plan and should be taken into account alongside your other expectations for the quarter or year.

How to create a sales forecast

Creating a sales forecast involves basic math and thorough knowledge of your typical sales cycle (although newer companies may lack this information and should conduct research instead). Follow these steps to create a sales forecast:

1. Choose your forecasting method.

Using the past to predict the future is essential to sales forecasting, but not all usage of past data is equal. Try one or more of these three prominent forecasting methods:

• Opportunity stage forecasting. This forecasting method pertains to your sales funnel. For example, if you know that 80 percent of past leads in the fourth stage of your funnel became customers and a current fourth-stage lead is inching toward a $50,000 deal, you can forecast the revenue you earn from this deal as $50,000 x 0.80 = $40,000.
• Historical forecasting. This forecasting method pertains to recent or seasonal data. For example, if you see month-to-month sales of $100,000 for a certain product, you can forecast that same amount for next month. If your company operates seasonally, use the numbers from the same month of the previous year instead of using the previous month’s sales. You can also incorporate growth trends into this method: Using the above example, if your sales typically grow 5 percent each month, you should forecast $100,000 + (0.05 x $100,000) = $105,000.
• Length-of-cycle forecasting. This method pertains to the period of time over which your sales funnel progresses. For example, if your sales funnel usually spans one month and you identify a lead with whom your team has been negotiating for three weeks, the sale has a likelihood of three to four weeks = 75 percent. If the sale would result in $100,000 in revenue, you can forecast $100,000 x 0.75 = $75,000 in sales.

Note that each of these methods has advantages and disadvantages regarding data accuracy, external factors and other considerations. That said, they are more straightforward and reliable (and less technical) than other methods, so they may still be best for your sales forecasts.

2. Identify what you’re selling.

This step may seem obvious, but a thorough sales forecast requires you to identify every item you’re selling. Excluding an item that you sell or including an item you’re no longer producing can lead to inaccurate sales forecasts.

3. Determine your sales prices and quantities.

Once you know what you’re selling, figure out your sales prices and the number of sales that you estimate will occur. The forecasting methods explained in step one can be used to quantify your sales. For example, the sale mentioned in the length-of-cycle example can be seen as a sale of 0.75 units.

4. Multiply your prices and quantities.

Likewise, the $100,000 x 0.75 operation in the above length-of-cycle example shows how to multiply your prices and quantities. This step looks a bit different if you’re using historical forecasting; in that case, multiply your previous period’s sale quantity by its number of products sold.

5. Factor in your costs.

Without taking sales costs into consideration, you can’t get a meaningful picture of your profit margins . That’s why you should also multiply the cost of making each sale by the number of sales.

For example, let’s say you use the historical forecasting method and predict sales for one month of $500,000 based on the previous month’s sales of 500 units at $1,000. Then, if each unit costs $100 to sell, your sales costs are 500 x $100 = $50,000. This means your profit forecast is $500,000 – $50,000 = $450,000.

6. Consider your inventory.

Now that you’ve seen the basic math of sales forecasting, you might feel overwhelmed. Maybe you’re wondering whether you really have to calculate these numbers for all of your items. The answer is usually yes, though if your inventory is large and diverse, you may need to condense revenues and costs into larger categories, as shown in this sales forecast table .

Why is sales forecasting important?

Sales forecasting gives you the information you need to adjust your company’s upcoming sales strategies and budget. An accurate forecast can point to gaps in your sales team’s methodology; areas where sales costs can be cut; or increases, decreases and trends in your sales. It does so while giving you more than enough time to make these adjustments and remain on track to meet your sales goals.

In addition, a sales forecast gives your sales team a target to strive toward. In sales, staying motivated is critical, and if your sales forecast sets a target, your salespeople will keep their eye on it. That’s especially true if you tie some sort of incentive to beating the forecast for a given period of time, such as team bonuses or boosted commissions for sales that exceed predictions.

What are some key sales forecasting challenges?

Here are some factors that may complicate your sales forecast:

• Sales history. Creating an accurate sales forecast requires thorough data on your recent company sales. This can present a substantial challenge for newer companies with little or no sales history. Without much past data to go on, several forecast influences — operating costs, sales prices, marketing activities — don’t yet exist for your company.
• Research. If your company doesn’t have an extensive sales history, you can patch this information gap somewhat via thorough research into your competitors , target market, industry and more. If your company does have an extensive sales history, this research remains important, though perhaps less so. In both cases, the time and money that go into research can pose sales forecasting challenges.
• Data accuracy. Sales forecasting assumes correct data sets, but in reality, human error — even with the use of customer relationship management (CRM) software — remains possible. When sales reps record inaccurate data in your CRM program , an incorrect sales forecast — and therefore poor planning — can result.
• Superficiality. In some cases, sales data only showcases numbers without explaining the reasoning behind fluctuations. Without these explanations, predicting future customer behavior can be tougher, which affects the accuracy of your sales forecast. Nearly every industry has a slow or busy period. A sales forecast for a busy period may be inaccurate if it’s based on a slow period, and even the most diligent sales executives can sometimes miss this discrepancy.
• Sales funnel inconsistency. Not only can two companies’ sales funnels look completely different, but the funnels that two sales reps within the same company use can also vary. Work proactively to prevent this internal discrepancy, as terminology gaps or unstandardized sales processes can result in misleading information and in turn skew sales forecasts.

What to do if you fall short of your sales forecast

Sales forecasts are predictive tools, and sometimes your team may fall short of predictions. If that happens, you should do two things: Analyze your forecasting methodology and review operations and market conditions for the period during which you missed the forecast.

First, take a closer look at your sales forecast and how you developed it. If it was grounded in lofty ambition rather than historical sales data, that may be a clear indicator that it wasn’t realistic. For example, if your team has historically brought in between $100,000 and $200,000 in revenue per quarter, suddenly expecting them to generate $500,000 without any demonstrable changes in operations is setting your team up to fail.

Similarly, if the sales forecast was built on a dependency that wasn’t met, that could explain the failure. For example, if your forecast was built on the premise that your marketing team would generate 20 percent more leads than it did in the previous period and the team only generated 5 percent more leads, it’s unlikely the resulting sales forecast could be met.

If your forecasting methodology appears sound — that is, it’s grounded in historical sales data and realistic assumptions about the upcoming period — take a look at market conditions. Has the economic landscape changed? For example, record inflation between 2021 and 2023 saw declines in consumer spending and reduced marketing budgets. Sales forecasts made before inflation impacted the broader economy are likely to miss the mark. In a case like this, it’s important to revise future sales forecasts once you understand why previous ones were not met. 

Sales forecasting supports financial planning and sets sales targets

Sales forecasting is important not only for benchmarking a successful quarter or year for your sales team, but also giving them a clear goal or target to surpass. While meeting a sales forecast is an important goal in itself — especially when that forecast is based on historical sales data and expected lead generation — eclipsing it can be a mark of great success. Sales forecasting is not only an important financial planning tool, it’s also a great motivator to get more out of your sales team.

Jacob Bierer-Nielsen contributed to this article.

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What is Sales Planning? How to Create a Sales Plan

Published: December 06, 2023

Sales planning is a fundamental component of sound selling. After all, you can‘t structure an effective sales effort if you don’t have, well, structure . Everyone — from the top to the bottom of a sales org — benefits from having solid, actionable, thoughtfully organized sales plans in place.

This kind of planning offers clarity and direction for your sales team — covering everything from the prospects you‘re trying to reach to the goals you’re trying to hit to the insight you're trying to deliver on.

But putting together one of these plans isn‘t always straightforward, so to help you out, I’ve compiled this detailed guide to sales planning — including expert-backed insight and examples — that will ensure your next sales plan is fundamentally sound and effective.

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In this post, we'll cover:

What is a sales plan?

Sales planning process.

• What goes in a sales plan template?

How to Write a Sales Plan

Tips for creating an effective sales plan, sales plan examples, strategic sales plan examples.

A sales plan lays out your objectives, high-level tactics, target audience, and potential obstacles. It's like a traditional business plan but focuses specifically on your sales strategy. A business plan lays out your goals — a sales plan describes exactly how you'll make those happen.

Sales plans often include information about the business's target customers, revenue goals, team structure, and the strategies and resources necessary for achieving its targets.

Free Sales Plan Template

Outline your company's sales strategy in one simple, coherent sales plan.

• Target Market
• Prospecting Strategy

What are the goals of an effective sales plan?

And if (or more likely when ) those goals change over time, you need to regularly communicate those shifts and the strategic adjustments that come with them to your team.

Your sales strategy keeps your sales process productive — it offers the actionable steps your reps can take to deliver on your vision and realize the goals you set. So naturally, you need to communicate it effectively. A sales plan offers a solid resource for that.

For instance, your sales org might notice that your SDRs are posting lackluster cold call conversion rates. In turn, you might want to have them focus primarily on email outreach, or you could experiment with new sales messaging on calls.

Regardless of how you want to approach the situation, a thoughtfully structured sales plan will give both you and your reps a high-level perspective that would inform more cohesive, effective efforts across the team.

An effective sales org is a machine — one where each part has a specific function that serves a specific purpose that needs to be executed in a specific fashion. That's why everyone who comprises that org needs to have a clear understanding of how they specifically play into the company's broader sales strategy.

Outlining roles and responsibilities while sales planning lends itself to more efficient task delegation, improved collaboration, overlap reduction, and increased accountability. All of which amount to more streamlined, smooth, successful sales efforts.

Sales planning can set the framework for gauging how well your team is delivering on your sales strategy. It can inform the benchmarks and milestones reps can use to see how their performance stacks up against your goals and expectations.

It also gives sales leadership a holistic view of how well a sales org is functioning as a whole — giving them the necessary perspective to understand whether they have the right people and tools in place to be as successful as possible.

Sales planning isn‘t (and shouldn’t) be limited to the actual sales plan document it produces. If that document is going to have any substance or practical value, it needs to be the byproduct of a thorough, well-informed, high-level strategy.

When sales planning, you have some key steps you need to cover — including:

• Gather sales data and search for trends.
• Define your objectives.
• Determine metrics for success.
• Assess the current situation.
• Start sales forecasting.
• Identify gaps.
• Ideate new initiatives.
• Involve stakeholders.
• Outline action items.

When putting this list together, I consulted  Zach Drollinger — Senior Director of Sales at edtech provider Coursedog — to ensure the examples detailed below are sound and accurate.

Step 1: Gather sales data and search for trends.

To plan for the present and future, your company needs to look to the past. What did sales look like during the previous year? What about the last five years? Using this information can help you identify trends in your industry. While it's not foolproof, it helps establish a foundation for your sales planning process.

For the sake of example, let‘s say that I’m a new sales director for an edtech company that sells curriculum planning software to higher education institutions. My vertical is community colleges, and my territory is the East Coast.

Once I assume this new role, I‘m going to want to gather as much context as possible about my vertical and how my company has approached it historically. I would pull information about how we’ve sold to this vertical.

How much new business have we closed within it in the past five years? How does that compare to how we perform with other kinds of institutions? Are we seeing significant churn from these customers?

I would also want to get context about the general needs, interests, and pain points of the kinds of institutions I‘m selling to. I’d look for insight into figures like degree velocity, staff retention, and enrollment.

Ultimately, I would get a comprehensive perspective on my sales process — a thorough understanding of where I stand and what my prospects are dealing with. That will ensure that I can deliver on the next step as effectively as possible.

Step 2: Define your objectives.

How do you know your business is doing well if you have no goals? As you can tell from its placement on this list, defining your goals and objectives is one of the first steps you should take in your sales planning process. Once you have them defined, you can move forward with executing them.

To extend the example from the previous step, I would leverage the context I gathered through the research I conducted about both my and my prospect's circumstances. I would start setting both broader goals and more granular operational objectives .

For instance, I might want to set a goal of increasing sales revenue from my vertical. From there, I would start putting together the kind of specific objectives that will facilitate that process — like connecting with administrators from at least 30 community colleges, booking demos with at least 10 schools, and successfully closing at least five institutions.

Obviously, those steps represent a streamlined (and unrealistically straightforward) sales process, but you get the idea — I would set a concrete goal, supplemented by SMART objectives , that will serve as a solid reference point for my org's efforts as the sales process progresses.

You're all set!

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Step 3: Determine metrics for success.

Every business is different. One thing we can all agree on is that you need metrics for success. These metrics are key performance indicators (KPIs). What are you going to use to determine if your business is successful? KPIs differ based on your medium, but standard metrics are gross profit margins, return on investment (ROI), daily web traffic users, conversion rate, and more.

I kind of covered this step in the previous example, but it still warrants a bit more elaboration. The “M” in SMART goals (“measurable”) is there for a reason. You can‘t tell if your efforts were successful if you don’t know what “successful” actually means.

The edtech sales example I‘ve been running with revolves mostly around me assuming ownership of an existing vertical and getting more out of it. So it’s fair to assume that sales growth rate — the increase or decrease of sales revenue in a given period, typically expressed as a percentage — would be an effective way to gauge success.

I might want to structure my goals and objectives around a sales growth rate of 20% Y/Y within my vertical. I would make sure my org was familiar with that figure and offer some context about what it would take to reach it — namely, how many institutions we would need to close and retain.

Step 4: Assess the current situation.

How is your business fairing right now? This information is relevant to determining how your current situation holds up to the goals and objectives you set during step two. What are your roadblocks? What are your strengths? Create a list of the obstacles hindering your success. Identify the assets you can use as an advantage. These factors will guide you as you build your sales plan.

Continuing the edtech example, I would use the historical context I gathered and the objectives I set to frame how I look at my current circumstances. I might start by considering my goal of increasing revenue by 20% Y/Y. In that case, I would look at the company's retention figures — ideally, that would give me a sense of whether that needs to be a major area of focus.

I would also try to pin down trends in the colleges that we've already closed — are there any pain points we consistently sell on? I might take a closer look at how we demo to see if we might be glossing over key elements of our value proposition. Maybe, I would use conversation intelligence to get a better sense of how reps are handling their calls.

Ultimately, I would try to identify why we're performing the way we are, the inefficiencies that might be resulting from our current strategy, and how we can best set ourselves up to sell as effectively as possible.

Step 5: Start sales forecasting.

Sales forecasting is an in-depth report that predicts what a salesperson, team, or company will sell weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annually. While it is finicky, it can help your company make better decisions when hiring, budgeting, prospecting, and setting goals.

After the COVID-19 pandemic, economics has become less predictable. Claire Fenton , the owner of StrActGro — a professional training and coaching company — states, “Many economic forecasters won't predict beyond three months at a time.” This makes sales forecasting difficult. However, there are tools at your disposal to create accurate sales forecasts .

In our edtech example, I would approach this step by trying to estimate how my sales org is going to fare with the specific vertical we‘re pursuing in the time window we’ve allotted.

The method I decide to go with will depend on factors like how many concrete opportunities we have lined up — in addition to elements like the kind of historical data we have handy, how the reps working these deals tend to perform, and the degree of insight we have about our potential customers.

Let's say I consider those factors and decide to run something called a multivariable analysis. In that case, I could start by taking stock of the opportunities my reps have lined up. Then, I could look at the reps working those deals, their typical win rates, and the time they have to close — among other factors.

For instance, I might calculate that a rep working with a particularly large institution has a 50% chance of closing within the window we‘ve allotted. Using that insight, we could attribute 50% of the potential deal size to our forecast — we’d repeat that process with all of the opportunities in question and ideally get a solid sense of the revenue we can expect to generate in this window.

Step 6: Identify gaps.

When identifying gaps in your business, consider what your company needs now and what you might need in the future. First, identify the skills you feel your employees need to reach your goal. Second, evaluate the skills of your current employees. Once you have this information, you can train employees or hire new ones to fill the gaps.

Continuing the edtech example, let‘s say my forecast turned up results that weren’t in keeping with what we need to reach our goals. If that were the case, I would take a holistic look at our process, operations, and resources to pin down inefficiencies or areas for improvement.

In my search, I find that our sales content and marketing collateral are dated — with case studies that don‘t cover our product’s newest and most relevant features. I also might see that our reps don‘t seem to have too much trouble booking demos, but the demos themselves aren’t converting due to a lack of training and inconsistent messaging.

And finally, I find that a lack of alignment with marketing has prospects focusing on unrealistic outcomes our sales team can‘t deliver on. Once I’ve identified those gaps, I would start to hone in on ways to remedy those issues and improve those elements.

Step 7: Ideate new initiatives.

Many industry trends are cyclical. They phase in and out of “style.” As you build your sales plan, ideate new initiatives based on opportunities you may have passed on in previous years.

If your business exclusively focused on word-of-mouth and social media marketing in the past, consider adding webinars or special promotions to your plan.

In the edtech example we've been running with, I would likely ideate initiatives based on the gaps I identified in the previous step. I would start a push to ensure that our sales content and marketing collateral are up-to-date and impressive.

I would also consider new training programs to ensure that our coaching infrastructure is prioritizing how to conduct effective demos. Finally, I would start to work on a plan with marketing to ensure our messaging is aligned with theirs — so we can make sure prospects' expectations are realistic and effective.

One way or another, I would take the gaps I found and find concrete, actionable ways to fill them. I would make sure that these initiatives aren't abstract. Just saying, " We're going to be better at demos," isn‘t a plan — it’s a sentiment, and sentiments don't translate to hard sales.

Step 8: Involve stakeholders.

Stakeholders are individuals, groups, or organizations with a vested interest in your company. They are typically investors, employees, or customers and often have deciding power in your business. Towards the end of your sales planning process, involve stakeholders from departments that affect your outcomes, such as marketing and product. It leads to an efficient and actionable sales planning process.

This step is sort of an extension of the previous two — once I‘ve identified the key issues and roadblocks obstructing my edtech startup’s sales org, I would start identifying the right people to fulfill the necessary initiatives I've put together.

In this example, I would tap some stakeholders in charge of our sales content and marketing collateral to produce newer, more relevant case studies and whitepapers we can pass along to the institutions we're working with.

I would also go to middle management and either offer more direction for coaching on demos or bring in a third-party training service to offer more focused, professional insight on the issue.

Finally, I would connect with marketing leadership to align on the benefits and outcomes we generally stress when pitching the schools we sell to. That way, we can ensure that the institutions we're connecting with have realistic expectations of our product or service that we can speak to more clearly and effectively.

Step 9: Outline action items.

Once you have implemented this strategy to create your sales planning process, the final step is outlining your action items. Using your company's capacity and quota numbers, build a list of steps that take you through the sales process. Examples of action items are writing a sales call script, identifying industry competitors, or strategizing new incentives or perks.

In our edtech example, some key action items might be:

• Revamp our prospecting strategy via more involved coaching and re-tooled sales messaging.
• Revamp administrator and college dean buyer personas.
• Conduct new trainings on demoing our software.
• See our new prospecting strategy from ideation to execution.
• Align with our sales enablement stakeholders for new, more relevant case studies and whitepapers.

Obviously, that list isn‘t exhaustive — but those are still the kinds of steps we would need to clarify and take to structure a more effective high-level strategy to produce different (ideally much better) results than we’ve been seeing.

One thing to keep in mind is that sales planning shouldn't end with creating the document.

You‘ll want to reiterate this process every year to maintain your organization's sales excellence.

Now that you‘re committed to the sales planning process, let's dive into the written execution component of sales planning.

Featured Resource: Sales Plan Template

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Blog Business How to Create a Sales Plan: Strategy, Examples and Templates

How to Create a Sales Plan: Strategy, Examples and Templates

Written by: Aditya Rana Mar 25, 2024

The difference between a company struggling to drive sales and one that’s hitting home runs often boils down to a well-crafted sales plan.

Without knowing how to write a sales plan , your sales reps will lack vision, not understand the market, and be ineffective at engaging potential customers.

Most businesses fail in sales planning because they don’t focus on their unique value. If you’re struggling with sales, here’s what you need to do: define your goal(s), create customer personas, and create an action plan for success.

One of the best ways to organize this information in one place is to use sales planning templates . In this post, I’ll show you how to write a sales plan (…with plenty of template examples included of course!).

Click to jump ahead:

What is a sales plan?

Benefits of a sales plan, how to create a sales plan, sales plan example, sales plan templates.

A sales plan is a strategic document that outlines how a business plans to convert leads into sales. It typically details the target market, customer profile, and actionable steps that must be taken to achieve revenue targets.

Here’s a great example of a sales plan that includes all these elements neatly packed into one document.

Every company needs a sales plan, but have you ever wondered why?

Why should businesses invest time and resources in creating sales plan when they could…well…be focusing on sales?

Sales plans are worth it because they tell sales employees what to do.

Without a sales plan, your sales efforts will end up becoming a disorganized mess. Let’s explore the benefits of sales plans in detail.

Help you identify and target the right market

A sales plan helps you figure out the target market that’s most likely to be responsive to your messaging.

I mean do you really want to waste your time trying to sell to someone who has no need for your product or isn’t interested in your offering?

But if you know who your customer is, you can target their pain points.

Help you set goals

All great sales plans require you to set goals that are actually attainable and budgeted for.

Without goals, your sales team essentially operates in the dark unsure of what success looks like and how to achieve it.

One of the best ways to set goals is by conducting a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) to understand the market landscape.

Help you forecast sales

Since sales plans require you to study historical sales data , you have the ability to understand trends, seasonality, and customer buying patterns.

This information can be used to accurately forecast future sales performance.

And when you chart it out visually like in this example, you can make data-driven decisions to optimize your sales strategy.

Help you identify risks

Because sales plans require you to study the market, you’ll be able to uncover risks such as market saturation, competitors, and shifting customer needs.

With this knowledge, you have the ability to be flexible in your approach.

Besides market risks, sales plans also help you pinpoint risks within your company such as a lack of qualified leads or unclear communication between departments.

Improve customer service

It may sound counterintuitive but creating a sales plan also actually improves your customer service.

Researching and trying to understand customer needs means new insights that you can share with the customer service team which allows them to tailor their approach.

You’ll also be able to train sales service reps to anticipate questions and concerns so that they can communicate effectively.

Increases sales efficiency

Sales plans help standardize sales tactics and ensure sales reps follow the same best practices to reduce inconsistencies and improve effectiveness.

One of the best ways to standardize practices is to use a flowchart like in this example to make sure everyone knows what to do when facing a decision.

Increases your profits

Sales plans generally guarantee a boost in profits because it allows sales team to laser-focus on high-value opportunities instead of being headless chickens.

Reducing wasted effort and a higher frequency of closed deals is a win in my book any day.

One of the best ways to measure changes in profits is to use a simple template to review performance like in this example.

Help you understand customer needs

Contrary to what you might think, sales plans aren’t just about selling but also about understanding customers at a deeper level.

The process of creating a plan forces you to analyze customer data, buying habits, and pain points, all of which will help you understand what makes your customers tick and build trust and loyalty.

Here’s a great example of a customer persona you can edit to include in your sales plan.

A sales plan is a document that helps you maximize profitability by identifying valuable segments and outlining strategies to influence customer behavior.

Common elements most sales plans include:

• Sales goals : Information on revenue, market share, and more.
• Sales strategy: Information on how to reach potential customers and convert them.
• Target audience: Information on ideal customers and their needs.
• Metrics : Methods to track progress.
• Resources :  Tools, budget, and personnel needed to achieve sales goals.

Let’s take an in-depth look at how to create a sales plan.

( Note : You don’t need to include each of these points in your sales plan but I recommend you cover most of them to build a plan that’s well-rounded).

Define your business mission and positioning

Before you jump into tactics, build a strong foundation by defining your company’s mission and positioning.

Here’s why this step is a must-do:

• Your mission statement defines your company’s purpose and values and gives your sales team and customers something to relate to.
• Your positioning statement defines how your product or service meets a specific need and sets you apart from the competition.

Trying to sell without any alignment to company values will lead to inconsistent messaging and damage your brand reputation.

Here’s a great example of a sales plan template you can customize with your own brand’s mission and positioning statements.

Define your target market

Unless you think you can sell to every person possible, you’ll need to define your ideal target market.

Study your customer base and ask questions like: do most of the customers belong to a specific industry? Or do they all face the same pain point?

Also, keep in mind that target market can change over time due to changes in your product, pricing, or factors out of your control, so it’s important to review and update your target market frequently.

Understand your target customers

This step often gets mixed with the previous one, so pay close attention.

Your target customers are those who your business wants to target because they’re most likely to make a purchase.

You can figure out who your target customers are by creating customer profiles by breaking down your target market into smaller groups based on geography, behavior, demography, and more.

Here’s a great sales plan template where you can edit in your own customer persona.

When making your buyer personas, make sure you answer the following questions.

• Motivations and challenges:  What are customer pain points? What drives purchasing decisions?
• Behaviors and preferences:  How do customers research products? What communication channels do they prefer?
• Goals and aspirations:  What are your prospective customers trying to achieve? How can your product or service help them get there?

Define sales objectives and goals

Setting clear, measurable goals gives you a method to measure performance of your sales strategies.

More importantly though, they give your sales team targets to aim for which then allows them to work in a structured and focused manner.

Your sale goals should be specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART). This is to make sure they’re realistically achievable within a set timeframe.

Here’s a comparison of good sales goal setting vs a bad one.

• ✅Drive $100,000 in sales of product X by Y date using Z tactics
• ❌ Increase overall sales in each product line

You can organize this information using a template like in this example, especially if you have multiple product lines.

Define your value proposition

Your value proposition is a concise statement that explains why a customer should choose your product or service over the competition.

Here’s an example of a value statement:

“For busy small business owners, we provide a user-friendly accounting software that saves you time and money, allowing you to focus on growing your business.”

Here are some tips on defining your value proposition:

• Identify customer needs:  What are the core challenges and pain points your ideal customer faces? Understanding their needs allows you to position your offering as the solution.
• Highlight your unique benefits:  What sets your product or service apart? Focus on benefits you deliver that address the customer’s needs.
• Quantify the value:  When possible, quantify the value you offer. Can you demonstrate a cost savings, increased efficiency, or improved outcomes?

Map out the customer journey

Unless you’re extremely lucky, no one is going to purchase from you during the first interaction.

That’s why it’s crucial for you to know the steps a customer takes from initial awareness to purchase. Mapping out their journey allows you to personalize messaging and influence behavior.

Here are some tips on how to create a customer journey map:

• Identify the stages:  Break down the journey into distinct stages, such as awareness, consideration, decision, and post-purchase.
• Define touchpoints: Pinpoint the different touchpoints where your customer interacts with your brand (example: website, social media, customer reviews).
• Understand customer needs at each stage: What information are they looking for at each stage? What are their concerns and motivations?
• Identify opportunities to engage:  Identify opportunities to engage with your potential customers and move them along the buying journey.

Want some help creating customer journeys?

This customer journey map template is an excellent way to bring customer journeys to life.

Gather existing sales data

This step involves collecting and analyzing all available data on past sales performance.

This data is critical in helping you spot trends, patterns, and areas for improvement in your sales operations.

Perform sales forecasting

Sales forecasting is the practice of estimating future sales which can be presented as a report highlighting expected sales volume weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annually.

Though not always 100% accurate, sales forecasting is key to writing sales plans because it’ll provide you with a clear picture of the ground reality which leads to better decisions on budgeting.

Here’s a template you can use to perform sales forecasting to makes the sales planning process effective.

Define your sales KPIs

KPIs are a fancy way of saying that you need to set metrics to track effectiveness of your sales strategy and team’s performance.

Some example KPIs you can include in sales plans are:

• Number of sales
• Sales revenue
• Average deal size

This sales report template is a great example of how you can include KPIs in your meetings to test performance and adjust strategy.

Identify gaps in the sales process

This step is all about analyzing your current sales process to figure out gaps and/or potential obstacles preventing you from achieving goals.

When you identify a gap, brainstorm potential solutions so that you can create a specific action plan.

Understand the sales stages

When writing a sales plan, make sure you cover each stage of the sales cycle. If you’re unsure of what the sales stages are, here’s a quick recap.

Prospecting

This is the foundation of the sales process where you identify potential customers who might be a good fit for your product or service.

Preparation

Once you have a list of prospects, you need to research their needs, challenges, and buying habits.

This is all about how you contact and communicate with prospects.

Presentation

This section is your opportunity to showcase the value proposition of your product or service. Tailor your presentation to address the prospect’s specific needs and demonstrate how your offering can solve their problems.

Handling objections

Identify common objections your sales team might encounter related to price, features, competition, or need. Develop clear and concise responses to address these concerns proactively.

Equip your sales team with effective closing techniques to secure commitments from prospects who are interested but might hesitate.

Plan your follow-up strategy based on the prospect’s decision timeline and the stage of the sales cycle. For longer timelines, periodic updates and information sharing through digital sales rooms can maintain engagement and provide valuable resources conveniently.

Organize the sales team

Organizing the sales team entails defining roles and responsibilities clearly to cover all aspects of the sales process effectively.

This might involve segmenting the team based on product lines, customer segments, or territories.

Here’s an example of how it might look:

Sarah — Sales Director — will lead the sales team, set overall strategy, goals and direction. Michael and Jessica — Business Development Executives — will focus on prospecting new leads. They will research potential customers, identify those who might be a good fit for the product, and qualify leads by gathering information and assessing their needs. William — Sales Development Manager — will manage the business development executives and ensuring they follow best practices. Chris and Lisa — Account Executives — will handle qualified leads. They build relationships with potential customers, present product demos, address objections, and close deals.

Using an org chart like in this example is a great way to visualize this information.

Outline the use of sales tools

Sales tools play a crucial role in streamlining the sales process and enhancing productivity.

Make sure you outline the tools your team will use, how they fit into different stages of the sales process, and any training required to maximize their utility.

This ensures that your team has the resources needed to engage effectively with prospects and customers.

Set the budget

Setting the budget involves allocating resources efficiently across various sales activities to achieve your objectives without overspending.

This includes expenses related to personnel, sales tools, marketing initiatives, travel, and customer entertainment.

A well-planned budget balances investment in growth opportunities with the overall financial health of the business.

Create a sales strategy and action plan

Now that you’ve laid the groundwork of what you want to achieve and how you plan to achieve it, it’s time to bring it all together into a single view.

Create an action plan which not includes your strategy but also concrete steps.

Your action plan should outlines specific activities for each stage of the sales funnel from prospecting (lead generation channels) to closing (structured process and follow-up strategy with timelines) and everything in between.

Performance and results measurement

Last but not least, your sales plan should present a clear and quantifiable means to track the effectiveness of sales activities.

How are you going to measure outcomes against predefined targets?

Performance measurement is key because it builds accountability and allows you to always have a pulse on customer behavior, preferences, and trends that’ll help you make decisions based on data.

If you’ve made it this far, give yourself a pat! I’ve covered A LOT on elements that you can include in a sales plan.

However, in most cases, you don’t always need to go that in-depth and instead should aim for brevity so that anyone in your team can stay up-to-date without having to worry about the nitty gritty details.

Here’s a sales plan example that’s brief but highly effective. It includes a summary of all you need in one document, a target market analysis, a customer profile, and an action plan.

Want even more sales plan templates for design inspiration or to customize and make your own?

This 30-60-90 day sales plan provides a great way to organize goals, priorities, performance goals, and metrics of success over three three timeframes: first 30 days, first 60 days, and first 90 days.

This sales plan is structured around key components that drive the sales process: objectives, strategies, tactics, and key metrics. It emphasizes a multi-channel approach to sales,, with a strong focus on measuring performance through metrics.

This sales roadmap is a great way to visualize activities such as defining strategy and generating leads to more advanced steps.

Conclusion: Save time on designing and updating sales plans and focus on growing your business with Venngage templates

Though there’s no secret formula for effective sales plan design, it’s good practice to include the basics or information on the target market, a customer persona, and a strategy on how you plan to sell.

What you definitely shouldn’t do is write a sales plan and then never look at it again.

And trust me, I know how time-consuming and frustrating it can be to edit your sales plan especially if you don’t have design skills. One small change might make the icons or numbers go all out of whack.

That’s why I recommend customizing our sales plan templates instead so that you can focus your energy on strategy.

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Run » finance, how to create a financial forecast for a startup business plan.

Financial forecasting allows you to measure the progress of your new business by benchmarking performance against anticipated sales and costs.

When starting a new business, a financial forecast is an important tool for recruiting investors as well as for budgeting for your first months of operating. A financial forecast is used to predict the cash flow necessary to operate the company day-to-day and cover financial liabilities.

Many lenders and investors ask for a financial forecast as part of a business plan; however, with no sales under your belt, it can be tricky to estimate how much money you will need to cover your expenses. Here’s how to begin creating a financial forecast for a new business.

[Read more: Startup 2021: Business Plan Financials ]

Start with a sales forecast

A sales forecast attempts to predict what your monthly sales will be for up to 18 months after launching your business. Creating a sales forecast without any past results is a little difficult. In this case, many entrepreneurs make their predictions using industry trends, market analysis demonstrating the population of potential customers and consumer trends. A sales forecast shows investors and lenders that you have a solid understanding of your target market and a clear vision of who will buy your product or service.

A sales forecast typically breaks down monthly sales by unit and price point. Beyond year two of being in business, the sales forecast can be shown quarterly, instead of monthly. Most financial lenders and investors like to see a three-year sales forecast as part of your startup business plan.

Lower fixed costs mean less risk, which might be theoretical in business schools but are very concrete when you have rent and payroll checks to sign.

Tim Berry, president and founder of Palo Alto Software

Create an expenses budget

An expenses budget forecasts how much you anticipate spending during the first years of operating. This includes both your overhead costs and operating expenses — any financial spending that you anticipate during the course of running your business.

Most experts recommend breaking down your expenses forecast by fixed and variable costs. Fixed costs are things such as rent and payroll, while variable costs change depending on demand and sales — advertising and promotional expenses, for instance. Breaking down costs into these two categories can help you better budget and improve your profitability.

"Lower fixed costs mean less risk, which might be theoretical in business schools but are very concrete when you have rent and payroll checks to sign," Tim Berry, president and founder of Palo Alto Software, told Inc . "Most of your variable costs are in those direct costs that belong in your sales forecast, but there are also some variable expenses, like ads and rebates and such."

Project your break-even point

Together, your expenses budget and sales forecast paints a picture of your profitability. Your break-even projection is the date at which you believe your business will become profitable — when more money is earned than spent. Very few businesses are profitable overnight or even in their first year. Most businesses take two to three years to be profitable, but others take far longer: Tesla , for instance, took 18 years to see its first full-year profit.

Lenders and investors will be interested in your break-even point as a projection of when they can begin to recoup their investment. Likewise, your CFO or operations manager can make better decisions after measuring the company’s results against its forecasts.

[Read more: ​​ Startup 2021: Writing a Business Plan? Here’s How to Do It, Step by Step ]

Develop a cash flow projection

A cash flow statement (or projection, for a new business) shows the flow of dollars moving in and out of the business. This is based on the sales forecast, your balance sheet and other assumptions you’ve used to create your expenses projection.

“If you are starting a new business and do not have these historical financial statements, you start by projecting a cash-flow statement broken down into 12 months,” wrote Inc . The cash flow statement will include projected cash flows from operating, investing and financing your business activities.

Keep in mind that most business plans involve developing specific financial documents: income statements, pro formas and a balance sheet, for instance. These documents may be required by investors or lenders; financial projections can help inform the development of those statements and guide your business as it grows.

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3 Popular Sales Forecast Examples For Small Businesses

• October 9, 2022
• Small Businesses

When creating financial forecasts for their business, entrepreneurs often face difficulties. Yet, there are 3 popular sales forecast examples you can use when creating yours. They work for the most popular revenue models , from restaurants, to retail shops, to software companies and other online businesses.

If you aren’t sure what are sales forecasts, read our article and follow these 5 simple steps to create accurate sales forecasts for your business. Looking for examples instead? In this article we explain what are the most popular 3 sales forecast examples for (almost) any type of business. Let’s dive in.

What is a sales forecast?

A sales forecast is the financial projection of a business’ sales (or revenues, turnover) over a given period. Therefore, sales forecasts are a must have of any financial forecast: by projecting sales and expenses we can then prepare the  4 financial statements  which constitute a financial forecast.

Often, sales forecasts are included within a business plan as part of your projected financial statements. Indeed, investors will want to see your business’ financial projections over a given period. Sales forecasts often are  3 or 5-years projections .

For more information on sales forecasts for small businesses and why they are important, read our article here .

Let’s now dive into the 3 most popular sales forecast examples which work for any type of business, from restaurants, to retail shops, to software companies and other online businesses.

Why are sales forecasts important?

Because sales forecasts are part of your financial forecasts, and ultimately your business plan, it is very important to get it right.

Sales forecasts help you set goals for your business

Sales forecasts aren’t simply a requirement for your business plan. Instead, they also help you set goals for your business. The sales you expect to generate as per your sales forecast should be used as a guidance for your budget and your business decisions later on.

You show you understand your business

Showing investors you’re not only a great entrepreneur but also a well-rounded and omniscient founder is very important to get the best deal. A great sales forecast will help understand how your business generates revenues, what are the different drivers affecting revenue and the potential risks involved.

Investors will give more credit to financial plans based on verified assumptions and reasonable targets. Calculate expected revenue using market size , market share and/or user adoption rates for instance. The more you justify your plan with verified assumptions, the more credible it will be.

You know how much you need to raise

Many entrepreneurs and founders do not really know exactly how much they need to raise.

Sales also drive expenses, so forecasting sales plays a pretty important role when assessing things such as your breakeven or the amount of money you need to raise . Miss the mark and you may be in trouble.

How much cash do you need to cover your losses over the next 12-18 months? The amount of money you need to raise is the result of your financial projections. This is very important to accurately estimate your revenues and expenses.

How to do a sales forecast?

Before we dive into the specifics of creating a rock-solid sales forecast for your small business, let’s first explain which approach you should follow.

Many entrepreneurs make the same mistake when forecasting their sales: they use a top-down approach. So what is bottom-up and top-down sales forecasting? Let’s use an example below.

• Top-down sales forecasting : we forecast sales using from the top down. For example, you make $500k in revenue per year and you forecast the next 3 years revenue by assuming you will capture 3% of your market size (assuming it is $100 million). By following this approach, your annual revenue is 3 years time is $3 million, a 6x increase from today.
• Bottom-up sales forecasting : we forecast sales using operational drivers (from the bottom up). For example, if your $500k sales are a function of your website traffic, we will forecast revenues based on this metric instead. Assuming website traffic increase by 50% each year (as you invest in paid and content), your revenue in 3 years time is $1.7 million, a 3x increase from today.

Bottom-up sales forecasting is the best approach for 2 main reasons:

• It allows us to relate revenues to another metric, helping us making sense of the projection. Does $3 million really make sense given this would mean multiplying website traffic by 6x over the next 3 years?
• Top-down approach requires us to make assumptions on the market size, which is often inaccurate for lack of publicly available data. Instead, bottom-up uses your own business’ historical data

Sales forecasts: 3 popular examples

1. location-based businesses.

If you are running a businesses with a physical location, such as a hotel, a restaurant, a repair shop or a retail store for example, forecasting sales boils down to forecasting street traffic.

Indeed, sales (revenues) are a function of the sales volume you generate (the number of “units” or products you sell). The sales volume itself is a function of the number of people who enter your store, and, by extrapolation, the number of people who pass by your store.

When forecasting sales for a new business, you should look at the location where your business will be based first. Assess the approximate number of people who are passing by.

Note: when assessing traffic, be careful to exclude any external factors (e.g. Christmas day), cyclicality and seasonality. Ideally, your assessment should look at a full week and all work hours in the day.

Once we have established the approximate number of people who pass by the street in a day, we will need to apply conversion rates, in order:

• How many people enter the store?
• Out of the people who enter the store, how many make a purchase?

Of course, if you already have some historical data (if you already run a store and are opening a new one), use your existing conversion rates. Else, make assumptions.

When making assumptions, you should use the data you have collected when making your own observations earlier. Use similar stores to yours, in a different street for example.

For example:

• 5% of people passing by your store enter
• 10% of people entering the store make a purchase

We can now create a simple sales forecast over a week, adding up the average traffic over a typical week:

2. Online businesses

Online businesses often acquire their customers via their website, or any type of online presence.

As such, unlike location-based businesses, sales (revenues) are a function of visitors (and not street traffic). The visitors can be visitors on a website, on a Appstore page (mobile apps) or any type of online lead acquisition page.

We often refer this type of acquisition as inbound acquisition . The traffic is two fold: paid and organic:

• Paid traffic : all visitors coming from paid marketing channels (Google Search, Facebook Ads, etc.). You are either paying for clicks, or impressions. 
• Organic traffic : all visitors landing on your landing page(s) organically (either via a referral link, direct search, social media post, blog article, etc.)

Paid marketing is the easiest way to generate traffic. Yet, because you are paying for each paid visitor, you will need to monitor your  Return on Ad Spend (ROAS)  to make sure your paid marketing campaigns are profitable.

In comparison, whilst you do not directly pay for each organic visitor, organic traffic is not free. Organic traffic is earned from investment into  SEO  and content. Whilst investing into your SEO for instance does not pay immediately, the returns can far outweigh those of your paid marketing in the long run.

So, when forecasting sales for online businesses, we should make assumptions on traffic. For example assuming:

• 30,000 visitors last month: 20,000 paid and 10,000 organic
• 3% monthly increase
• 2% conversion rate
• $50 average purchase price

This is how could look like a simplified sales forecast example for an online business:

3. Lead-acquisition businesses

Lead-acquisition businesses are companies that make sales through their sales teams efforts. This is also known as outbound acquisition (vs. inbound discussed above).

With outbound acquisition, a business acquires customers through its sales team. Whether it is via phone, email, Linkedin or even in-person, the number of acquired customers is a function of the number of sales people.

Outbound acquisition is very common for business-to-business (B2B) companies. For example, Enterprise SaaS and B2B marketplaces use outbound acquisition to acquire their customers.

Outbound customer acquisition is therefore easier to forecast vs. inbound. The simple formula to estimate new customers over time is:

The number of closings per sales person is also referred to as the efficiency of your sales team = the number of customer one sales person acquire (or “close”) each month, in average.

For example, lets’ assume you have 20 sales people. Historically, your sales team has closed (“acquired”) in average 2 B2B clients per month per sales person. Assuming you have the same number of sales persons and the same sales efficiency in the future, we can reasonably expect 40 new customers per month.

Now, assuming 1 new hire every 2 months, a sales forecast example for a lead-acquisition business could look like this:

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• An In-Depth Guide to Sales Forecasting Methods

The sales environment is highly competitive and requires continuous monitoring. To stay ahead, businesses must anticipate trends and make well-informed decisions. Sales forecasting is crucial in this context, providing valuable insights to steer strategic direction , allocate resources, and plan overall business strategies. This guide delves into different sales forecasting methods to help you select the most suitable approach for your requirements.

7 Forecasting Methods: A Toolbox for Success

There’s no one-size-fits-all approach to sales forecasting. Here’s a breakdown of popular methods, along with their pros, cons, and ideal use cases:

1. Historical Forecasting

Pros: Simple to implement, leverages readily available data. Cons: Relies on past trends and may not account for future changes. When to Use: Ideal for established businesses with consistent historical data. Historical forecasting often utilizes time-series analysis to identify patterns in past sales data, enabling businesses to predict future sales based on these trends.

2. Opportunity Stage Forecasting

Pros: Provides granular insights into the sales pipeline and facilitates targeted coaching. Cons: Accuracy heavily depends on sales rep estimates. When to Use: Effective for businesses with a defined sales process and reliable rep estimates. By analyzing where each deal is in the sales funnel, businesses can make educated guesses about future sales outcomes, enhancing their business planning efforts.

3. Length of Sales Cycle Forecasting

Pros: Considers sales cycle duration and facilitates resource allocation based on deal proximity to closing. Cons: Requires accurate data on historical sales cycles. When to Use: Valuable for businesses with well-defined sales cycles and historical sales cycle data. This method helps set sales quotas by providing insights into how long deals typically take to close.

4. Intuitive Forecasting

Pros: Leverages the experience and insights of sales reps. Cons: Subjective and prone to bias. When to Use: Often used as a starting point, it is best combined with other methods. Intuitive forecasting can be helpful when combined with qualitative and quantitative methods to balance subjective insights with objective data.

5. Multivariable Analysis Forecasting

Pros: Considers factors like market trends, economic indicators, and marketing campaigns. Cons: Requires robust data and analytical expertise. When to Use: Powerful for businesses with access to rich data sets and the resources for complex analysis. Using statistical analysis and regression techniques, multivariable analysis helps businesses understand the impact of multiple variables on their sales performance.

6. Pipeline Forecasting Method

Pros: Focuses on potential deals in the sales funnel, providing a clear view of future sales opportunities. Cons: May not account for changes in market conditions or new competitors. When to Use: Useful for companies with a well-defined sales funnel and tracking system. This method involves analyzing the sales pipeline stages to predict future sales, enhancing the accuracy of sales calls and business planning.

7. Lead-driven Forecasting

Pros: Uses data from lead sources and conversion rates to predict sales. Cons: Can be inaccurate if lead data is not well-maintained or if market conditions change rapidly. When to Use: Effective for SaaS companies and businesses with a solid digital marketing presence. Businesses can make data-informed decisions about future sales by tracking key metrics like customer conversion rates and lead sources.

Demand Forecasting and Consumption-based Forecasting

Demand forecasting.

Demand forecasting involves predicting future customer demand using historical data and market analysis. This method is crucial for inventory management and ensuring businesses can meet customer needs without overstocking or understocking products.

Consumption-based Forecasting

Consumption-based forecasting focuses on predicting future sales based on current consumption patterns. This approach is beneficial for businesses that track real-time sales data and want to respond quickly to changes in customer behavior.

Incorporating Mathematical Models and Quantitative Methods

Mathematical models.

Mathematical models use complex algorithms and statistical techniques to predict future sales. These models can include linear regression, multivariable analysis, and machine learning algorithms.

Quantitative Methods

Quantitative methods involve using numerical data and statistical analysis to make predictions. Techniques such as linear regression and time-series analysis are commonly used in quantitative forecasting to identify trends and make accurate predictions.

Time-series Analysis

Time-series analysis involves analyzing data points over time to identify patterns and trends. This method is often used in historical forecasting to predict future sales based on past performance.

Regression Analysis

Regression analysis examines the relationship between different variables and sales outcomes. Linear regression is a common technique to understand how changes in one variable (e.g., marketing spend) can impact sales.

Top-down and Bottom-up Forecasting

Top-down forecasting.

Top-down forecasting starts with setting overall sales targets at the management level. These targets are then broken down into smaller goals for individual teams or sales reps. This method ensures that the company’s strategic objectives are met and all departments are aligned toward common goals. Top-down forecasting leverages management’s strategic insights and high-level market analysis to guide the sales forecasting process.

Bottom-up Forecasting

Bottom-up forecasting begins at the grassroots level, with individual salespeople or teams estimating their sales based on their knowledge of potential deals and market conditions. These individual estimates are then aggregated to create a comprehensive company-wide forecast. This approach leverages the on-the-ground insights of sales reps, providing a more detailed and realistic view of future sales. Combining bottom-up forecasting with top-down approaches can provide a balanced perspective, incorporating strategic and operational insights.

Enhancing Forecast Accuracy with Recent Data and Real-life Insights

Using recent data.

Incorporating recent data into sales forecasts is crucial for maintaining accuracy. Businesses should continuously update their estimates with the latest sales figures and market trends to reflect the current business environment.

Real-life Insights and Customer Feedback

Incorporating real-life insights and customer feedback into sales forecasts can provide a more accurate picture of future sales. By understanding customer preferences and behavior, businesses can make more informed predictions about future demand.

The Role of Cross-functional Teams and Product Teams in Sales Forecasting

Cross-functional teams.

Cross-functional teams, including sales, marketing, and product teams, are critical in sales forecasting. By working together, these teams can provide a comprehensive view of the factors influencing sales and improve the accuracy of forecasts.

Product Teams

Product teams can provide valuable insights into product changes and customer preferences, helping businesses adjust their forecasts for new features and market trends.

Top Tools and Software for Sales Forecasting

Crm systems.

CRMs offer built-in dashboards and advanced analytics features to help businesses track sales performance and forecast future sales. By leveraging a CRM tool, companies can improve their forecasting accuracy and make data-informed decisions.

Spreadsheets

Excel is a powerful tool for sales forecasting, offering templates and functions for statistical analysis, regression, and data visualization. Businesses can use Excel to create custom forecasts that meet their specific needs.

3 Common Challenges in Sales Forecasting

• Inaccurate Forecasts

Inaccurate forecasts can result from relying on outdated data or failing to account for external factors. Businesses should regularly update their projections and use various methods to improve accuracy.

• Tricky Business of Forecasting

Sales forecasting is inherently challenging due to the unpredictable nature of markets and customer behavior. By using a data-informed process and continuously refining their methods, businesses can improve their success rate.

• Financial Services and Cash Flow

In the financial services industry, accurate sales forecasting is crucial for managing cash flow and making informed business decisions. Forecasting helps businesses anticipate revenue fluctuations and plan accordingly.

Let us help you find the top talent for your sales team and achieve your sales targets. Visit our services page to learn more.

The Bottom Line

Sales forecasting is crucial for navigating the constantly changing sales landscape and using accurate predictions to make strategic decisions and drive continuous growth is key. 

Incorporating recent data, customer feedback, and insights from cross-functional teams will further enhance your forecasting accuracy, helping you stay ahead in a competitive business environment. Check out more insightful articles on sales forecasting and business strategies at peaksalesrecruiting.com/blog .

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How to calculate a sales forecast for a new business

Table of Contents

Definition of a sales forecast

The uses of a sales forecast, how to calculate sales forecast for a new business, calculate a sales forecast using the accounts of your competition , calculate a sales forecast using a target market, manage your finances with countingup.

When you’re running a business, you should always keep one eye on the future. If you don’t have a rough idea of what the next week, month, or year might bring, you’ll be at a disadvantage when making business decisions. This means that calculating a sales forecast is essential, especially when you’re just starting a business or beginning to write a business plan . 

Sales forecasting can be tough if you don’t have much business experience, but we’re here to help. This article will cover a range of different topics related to sales forecasting, including:

Creating a sales forecast is the first step in managing your company’s cash flow . Your cash flow is the movement of money in and out of your business. By forecasting your sales, you’ll be able to predict your gro s s profit and net profit , which means you can start anticipating what money you’ll have to spend on running your business for the next month. 

Put simply, a sales forecast is a prediction of how much you’re going to sell in the coming month. This forecast doesn’t need to be a guess — it’s possible to calculate a fairly accurate forecast with some thorough research. The focus of your research will differ depending on which sales forecast method you pick.

Firstly, your sales forecast is important because it helps you set sales goals . Measuring the success of your business is a vital part of deciding its future, and setting sales goals is one of the simplest ways to measure success. 

If you have an accurate sales forecast, you’ll be able to set realistic sales goals. You’ll want your goals to be realistic, as this will give the clearest picture of how well your company is doing and if significant changes are needed.

Similarly, sales forecasts can also help create an accurate budget for your business. As a sales forecast is essential for predicting the money your business will make, it also plays an important part in working out how much money you’ll have to spend. 

Finally, sales forecasts help with finding investors for your business . If you’re looking for financial support to start your business, any investor you approach will likely be interested in the amount of money you expect the business to make. If you’ve created a sales forecast, you’ll be able to provide this information.

Large, well-established businesses rely on the sales figures of previous months to calculate their sales forecasts for the future. While having previous sales figures helps create more accurate forecasts, it’s not essential. There are a couple of methods new businesses can use to calculate their sales forecasts, even if they don’t have a sales history to look back at.

It’s always a good idea to research the competition when you’re setting up a new business. This is also true when calculating a sales forecast, but it depends on the type of businesses that make up your competition.

If any of your competitors are registered with the government as limited companies , they will have to make their accounts publicly available. These accounts will contain things like their monthly expenses, total profits, and (most importantly) the money they’ve made from sales. 

Using this last figure, you can work out how much your competitors are making from sales each month, and get a reasonable estimate of your own sales. You can find these accounts by searching for your competitor’s business on Companies House .

Please note that this method isn’t effective if your competitors are sole traders , as this means they won’t need to publish their accounts publicly. In this instance, you should use the forecasting method below. 

This method is known as ‘bottom-up’ forecasting, as you start at the bottom — your potential market of customers — and then work up to a forecast — the percentage of those customers that make a purchase.

The first step of this method is identifying your target market . This is the section of the population that you think will be interested in your product. With a little market research — things like sending out surveys, or posting polls on social media — you can work out how many people are in your target market. 

Once you have the size of your target market, you need to make realistic estimates of how many people will make a purchase. For example, if 1000 people in the local area are potential customers, you should expect 10% to visit your store or website, and 1% to actually make a purchase.

This method of calculating a sales forecast is good because it’s very adaptable. If you get many more or far fewer sales than you originally calculated, then you can adjust your figures accordingly and record the new forecast. 

It’s also a good idea to categorise this sort of sales forecast. Instead of estimating your overall sales, estimate the sales of each type of product you sell. That way, you can use the forecast to work out how many of each product to make or order each month. 

Creating a sales forecast is a great start, but it’s only the first part of managing your sales revenue. Once you start making sales and money starts coming in, you’ll need to track that cash so you can work out where to spend it. If you think you might have trouble with this, try using a financial software tool like Countingup.

Countingup is the business current account with built-in accounting software that allows you to manage all your financial data in one place. With features like automatic expense categorisation, invoicing on the go, receipt capture tools, tax estimates, and cash flow insights, you can confidently keep on top of your business finances wherever you are. 

You can also share your bookkeeping with your accountant instantly without worrying about duplication errors, data lags or inaccuracies. Seamless, simple, and straightforward!  Find out more here .

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General election latest: Starmer gives blunt response on potentially rejoining EU - as police drop investigation into his deputy

Greater Manchester Police will take no further action after an investigation into Labour's Angela Rayner. Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak continues to sing the virtues of his national service policy proposal.

Tuesday 28 May 2024 21:40, UK

• General Election 2024

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Election news

• Abbott given back Labour whip
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• Explained: What Starmer's deputy was being investigated for
• Starmer: 'No case' for rejoining EU | Reeves won't rule out tax rises
• Daily Podcast: How long will Labour's promise on taxes last?
• Live reporting by Faith Ridler  and (earlier)  Ben Bloch

Expert analysis

• Gurpreet Narwan: Farage already has eyes on elections to come
• Adam Boulton: What makes this election particularly exciting
• Sam Coates: Labour could have difficult decisions to make

Election essentials

• Trackers: Who's leading polls? | Is PM keeping promises?
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• Read more: What happens next? | Which MPs are standing down? | Key seats to watch | How to register to vote | What counts as voter ID? | Check if your constituency's changing | Sky's coverage plans

Sir Keir Starmer has pledged cut NHS waiting lists from day one, telling hospitals to immediately establish new clinics on evenings and weekends.

The Labour leader has pledged that 40,000 appointments per week will be rapidly rolled out, by sending staff from Guy's and St Thomas's NHS Foundation Trust to help set up high intensity schemes.

These teams have already "proven they can get their high intensity theatre lists on weekends up and running within six weeks", Labour said.

Sir Keir added: "It was NHS staff working in the hospital I can see from my office in parliament who led the way on this new model.

"Labour will take the best of the NHS to the rest of the NHS, so patients in every part of the country can be treated on time. 

"The NHS is personal to me. It runs through my family. 

"That's why I'm utterly committed to reforming this service, getting the NHS back on its feet, and making it fit for the future."

After a bumpy start to the Tory election campaign, day six has been somewhat smoother for Rishi Sunak.

That's not to say the Conservative election machine isn't on the lookout for potential missteps though.

During a TV interview in the changing room of a bowls club in Leicestershire, a hat was strategically placed to cover a name tag adorned with the blush-worthy surname "Glasscock".

While at a homeware factory in Staffordshire, a Tory aide spotted and swiftly removed a can of Monster energy drink from a worktop where the prime minister was about to inspect some ceramics.

Amid a slanging match over leaders taking 'duvet days' early in the campaign, a photo of the Tory leader next to a giant caffeine-stuffed beverage is probably not the message the party wants to send out.

You can read more from Sky News below:

What are the rules on voter ID?  How does tactical voting work? In what different ways can you cast your ballot?

The countdown to the election is on - and already the amount of information can seem overwhelming. 

We cut through the noise to bring you what you need to know, from registering to vote, to election day and what happens next.

Read on here...

We're still very much in the early days of the election campaign - but policy announcements are coming in thick and fast from the main two parties.

Here's a breakdown of what we've heard so far...

The Conservative Party

National service - The Conservatives have vowed to bring back a "modern" form of national service for 18-year-olds in the UK, which could involve military service of volunteer work.

'Triple lock plus' -   The party has promised to cut taxes for pensioners by creating a new "age-related" tax-free allowance - dubbed "triple lock plus". In short, a pensioner's allowance would rise in line with either average earnings, inflation or by 2.5% - whichever is higher - from next April.

Education - The Tories have promised to create a new qualification framework called the Advanced British Standard for those aged 16 to 18. The party also proposed making "some form" of maths and English compulsory up to the end of school.

Environment - Rishi Sunak has said he remains committed to plans to reach net zero by 2050, a goal adopted under Theresa May in 2019.

The Labour Party

Taxation - Labour has pledged not reverse the two recent cuts to national insurance - and not to increase income tax. 

Economy - Two flagship economic pledges from Labour are the abolition of the non-dom tax status held by some wealthy foreign nationals, and the introduction of VAT to private school fees.

Waiting lists - The party has said it will get the NHS "back on its feet" by delivering 40,000 more evening and weekend appointments per week.

Environment - A major policy pushed by Labour is the formation of Great British Energy, which would be publicly owned. The party claims this would reduce household energy bills and create jobs.

Education - Also a headline policy from Labour is a plan to recruit around 6,500 new teachers in key subjects - and create a "national excellence programme" to support professional development.

Until voters go to the polls on 4 July, the Politics Hub will be looking back at some memorable moments from previous general election campaigns.

The big winner from the UK's first ever TV prime ministerial debate in 2010 wasn't primary contenders David Cameron and Gordon Brown.

No, it was Nick Clegg.

As the Tory and Labour leaders looked to take chunks out of one another, they saved their more conciliatory side for the insurgent Lib Dem.

He could do no wrong that night, with Messrs Cameron and Brown both finding it completely irresistible not to simply "agree with Nick".

Cleggmania took him all the way into Number 10 as part of the coalition, where he stayed until his party was turfed out by voters in 2015.

Previous entry: The Prescott punch

By  Gurpreet Narwan , political correspondent

Recent polling suggests Reform could cost the Tories as many as 100 seats, paving the way for a Labour government by splitting the right. 

It's something Tory MPs are highly anxious about and explains why the Conservatives are pushing the following message hard: a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour. 

It's a tactic they deployed against the Liberal Democrats in 2015, warning voters that they had a choice between Ed Miliband and David Cameron. 

Farage had a comeback ready in Dover today.

In stark contrast to Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK, he conceded the election result was a foregone conclusion. 

"Labour have won, so why not vote for something you believe in," he said. 

He argued this campaign wasn't about the current election but about building the Reform movement, a process that could take six years and was focused on turning the party into a sustainable force on the right of British politics. 

This is something parties to the right of the Tories have not managed. He wants to determine the shape of conservative opposition in the UK. 

That could also have an impact on the direction of travel that the Conservative Party takes after the election. 

It was the most salient point to emerge from today's campaign event. 

We end tonight's show with a new classic of the Lib Dem election stunt genre.

Sir Ed Davey fell off a paddleboard multiple times during a campaign stunt in Windermere - admitting one of his plunges into the water was intentional.

The Liberal Democrat leader said his leap into the cold waters of the Lake District was for the benefit of the cameras - but he "just kept falling in" after that.

Despite the footage causing a splash online, he stressed there was a "serious message" behind the stunt.

"Lakes like Lake Windermere are so precious," he said. "Our environment and our wonderful country is so critical to so many people.

"It's important for public health, it's important for the environment, it's important for the tourist economy."

That's it for tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge - the show will be back at the same time tomorrow.

Adam Boulton , Sky News's election commentator, is now joining Sophy Ridge to discuss his history covering general elections - starting in 1983.

This was the poll in which Margaret Thatcher was re-elected after winning the Falklands.

"I've covered I think 10 general elections," Adam says, pointing out the July election - for which he will join Sky News - will be his 11th.

But this only includes two changes of party in government, he says.

"What makes this election particularly exciting is the possibility, according to the opinion polls, that we're going to get another change in government."

Adam adds: "We had 17 or 18 years of Thatcher, and then 12 or 13 years of Blair and Brown, and now we've had 14 years from Cameron to Sunak."

If there is a change of party in July - what will this day look like?

"It's always very interesting," he says, explaining it is "quite emotional" because you see the "utter desolation of the side that's been defeated".

Adam is then asked how much a campaign can make a difference.

He says: "I just wonder how much difference this campaign is going to make to voting intention, it's clearly going to be very important in terms of formulating what the policies are for the parties, testing the leaders."

Adam adds this is an election in which "both leaders are not known quantities, neither of them have led a party into a general election before".

However, he says, another "exceptional thing" of this election is the amount of times the opinion polls have "said the same thing", which is Labour's on course for a majority.

Diane Abbott has been handed back the Labour whip, Sky News understands.

The MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington was suspended by the party more than a year ago after suggesting Jewish people did not experience racism, but rather prejudice similar to red heads.

She swiftly apologised and withdrew her remarks.

While a Labour investigation into her comments ended in December, she was made to wait for the outcome.

A report in The Times earlier this evening suggested she'd been banned from standing for the party at the election on 4 July.

Ms Abbott was Britain's first ever black female MP.

It's not yet been confirmed whether she will stand for election again.

Labour's deadline for picking candidates is 4 June.

This is fast shaping up to be the biggest spending election ever - and already the Conservatives are spending their cash begging their voters not to defect to Reform.

Take paid political adverts on Meta, which owns Instagram and Facebook. Labour started strong and is still seriously outpacing the Conservatives.

And the picture on Google-owned sites - we're mainly talking about YouTube - is even more stark.

Here, the Conservatives have spent £50,200 since May 22, according to Who Targets Me. Labour has spent £250,350 - more than five times more.

Put it another way - that's roughly 10 million advert plays versus 50 million.

Our online campaign correspondent Tom Cheshire has been diving into these quite extraordinary numbers:

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Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru and Lewis Krauskopf in New York Additional reporting by Pranav Kashyap and Ankika Biswas Editing by Megan Davies and Matthew Lewis

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