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The sell-off in UPS has gone too far.
United Parcel Service ( UPS 0.03% ) stock gained an impressive 83% between 2020 and the end of 2021 -- benefiting from a shift away from services and in-store shopping toward home delivery. But since the beginning of 2022, UPS is down over 35% compared to a 12% gain in the S&P 500 .
Here's why the high-yield dividend stock deserved to sell off but is worth buying now.
Image source: Getty Images.
One look at a chart of UPS' stock price, sales, and operating margin, and it's easy to see why the stock is hovering around a three-year low.
UPS data by YCharts
During the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, UPS' high-margin business-to-business volumes plummeted. However, demand for residential package deliveries soared, leading to rapidly rising revenue. As the business environment recovered, UPS entered a golden period of revenue growth and rising margins. In the chart, you can see the stock price peak in early 2022, with revenue and operating margins peaking later that year.
The last two years have been very difficult for UPS for reasons within and outside its control. The company's most damaging decision was to overexpand its routes in anticipation of sustained growth in the U.S. small package market. Unfortunately, UPS' forecast badly missed reality, as the pandemic-induced surge in package delivery volume proved short-lived.
UPS has revised its forecast, expecting a 5.5% compound annual growth rate in average daily volume between 2023 and 2026. Based on that growth rate, it expects to grow revenue to a range of $108 billion to $114 billion by 2026 and reach an adjusted operating margin of at least 13%. In other words, it expects an adjusted operating margin similar to the peak from late 2021 and 2022, paired with higher revenue.
A key part of UPS' growth plan is healthcare. UPS expects healthcare revenue to double by 2026 , thanks to organic growth and acquisitions. UPS is making a big bet on this segment, and it's important to understand that its medium-term targets largely hinge on the success of healthcare. Monitoring the segment's performance in UPS' quarterly financials, as well as management's commentary on healthcare during its earnings calls, can help you determine if the bet is paying off or not going as planned.
UPS has set clear medium-term targets and expectations for investors, which is a helpful yardstick by which to judge the company. However, until UPS progresses toward those targets, the stock will likely remain in "prove it mode." The story has dramatically changed, as UPS went from a company that consistently blew expectations out of the water to falling short of guidance. UPS has run out of slack, and deservingly so.
At times like this, it can be helpful to zoom out and understand what's driving negative investor sentiment and judge that sentiment within the context of the long-term investment thesis. UPS benefits from a growing economy, both domestically and intentionally. Its push into healthcare, which is both time and temperature-sensitive, makes a lot of sense and is a great way to give UPS an edge over competitors.
UPS has reached a valuation and dividend yield that are too generous to pass up.
UPS Dividend Yield data by YCharts
Its dividend yield sits at 4.7% -- the most in over 15 years. UPS has also raised its dividend every year for the last 15 years, including a monster 49% raise in early 2022.
In the short term, UPS doesn't have the earnings growth to justify a growing dividend . However, management's commentary on the first-quarter 2024 earnings call suggested that UPS would work to keep the dividend steady or slightly raise it and bring down the payout ratio with earnings growth rather than lowering the dividend.
UPS has an adjusted payout ratio target of 50%, meaning it plans to distribute half of the adjusted earnings to shareholders through the dividend. UPS recognizes that it needs to improve its profitability to resume making sizable dividend raises. But in the meantime, the dividend is already quite attractive -- especially given the S&P 500 yields just 1.3%.
UPS' price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.9 is close to the 10-year median of 20.6. However, UPS' forward P/E is 16.8 -- indicating that analysts expect earnings to improve in the next year.
Consensus analyst estimates call for $8.23 in 2024 earnings per share (EPS) and a whopping $9.82 in 2025 EPS. These are merely projections, so they should be approached with caution. However, at a price per share of around $137.50, UPS looks very cheap if its earnings improve even closer to the forecast pace.
In today's expensive market, it can be difficult to find juicy opportunities. But UPS is one of them.
UPS' inexpensive valuation and high dividend yield provide worthwhile incentives to hold the stock through this challenging time. However, if UPS continues to disappoint and veer off course from its medium-term targets, analysts will likely revise their forecasts, and the stock won't look like such a bargain.
UPS is a prime example of an out-of-favor stock. It's easy to spotlight the company's recent blemishes and blunders, but it's also a big mistake to discount UPS' impressive market position and runway in healthcare.
The passive income opportunity and potential for a turnaround outweigh the cons, making UPS a worthwhile, high-yield dividend stock to buy if you're willing to ride out volatility.
Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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Got tinnitus a device that tickles the tongue helps this musician find relief.
Allison Aubrey
After using the Lenire device for an hour each day for 12 weeks, Victoria Banks says her tinnitus is "barely noticeable." David Petrelli/Victoria Banks hide caption
After using the Lenire device for an hour each day for 12 weeks, Victoria Banks says her tinnitus is "barely noticeable."
Imagine if every moment is filled with a high-pitched buzz or ring that you can't turn off.
More than 25 million adults in the U.S., have a condition called tinnitus, according to the American Tinnitus Association. It can be stressful, even panic-inducing and difficult to manage. Dozens of factors can contribute to the onset of tinnitus, including hearing loss, exposure to loud noise or a viral illness.
There's no cure, but there are a range of strategies to reduce the symptoms and make it less bothersome, including hearing aids, mindfulness therapy , and one newer option – a device approved by the FDA to treat tinnitus using electrical stimulation of the tongue.
The device has helped Victoria Banks, a singer and songwriter in Nashville, Tenn., who developed tinnitus about three years ago.
"The noise in my head felt like a bunch of cicadas," Banks says. "It was terrifying." The buzz made it difficult for her to sing and listen to music. "It can be absolutely debilitating," she says.
Tinnitus bothers millions of americans. here's how to turn down the noise.
Banks tried taking dietary supplements , but those didn't help. She also stepped up exercise, but that didn't bring relief either. Then she read about a device called Lenire, which was approved by the FDA in March 2023. It includes a plastic mouthpiece with stainless steel electrodes that electrically stimulate the tongue. It is the first device of its kind to be approved for tinnitus.
"This had worked for other people, and I thought I'm willing to try anything at this point," Banks recalls.
She sought out audiologist Brian Fligor, who treats severe cases of tinnitus in the Boston area. Fligor was impressed by the results of a clinical trial that found 84% of participants who tried Lenire experienced a significant reduction in symptoms. He became one of the first providers in the U.S. to use the device with his patients. Fligor also served on an advisory panel assembled by the company who developed it.
"A good candidate for this device is somebody who's had tinnitus for at least three months," Fligor says, emphasizing that people should be evaluated first to make sure there's not an underlying medical issue.
Tinnitus often accompanies hearing loss, but Victoria Banks' hearing was fine and she had no other medical issue, so she was a good candidate.
Banks used the device for an hour each day for 12 weeks. During the hour-long sessions, the electrical stimulation "tickles" the tongue, she says. In addition, the device includes a set of headphones that play a series of tones and ocean-wave sounds.
The device works, in part, by shifting the brain's attention away from the buzz. We're wired to focus on important information coming into our brains, Fligor says. Think of it as a spotlight at a show pointed at the most important thing on the stage. "When you have tinnitus and you're frustrated or angry or scared by it, that spotlight gets really strong and focused on the tinnitus," Fligor says.
"It's the combination of what you're feeling through the nerves in your tongue and what you're hearing through your ears happening in synchrony that causes the spotlight in your brain to not be so stuck on the tinnitus," Fligor explains.
A clinical trial found 84% of people who used the device experienced a significant reduction in symptoms. Brian Fligor hide caption
A clinical trial found 84% of people who used the device experienced a significant reduction in symptoms.
"It unsticks your spotlight" and helps desensitize people to the perceived noise that their tinnitus creates, he says.
Banks says the ringing in her ears did not completely disappear, but now it's barely noticeable on most days.
"It's kind of like if I lived near a waterfall and the waterfall was constantly going," she says. Over time, the waterfall sound fades out of consciousness.
"My brain is now focusing on other things," and the buzz is no longer so distracting. She's back to listening to music, writing music, and performing music." I'm doing all of those things," she says.
When the buzz comes back into focus, Banks says a refresher session with the device helps.
A clinical trial found that 84% of people who tried Lenire , saw significant improvements in their condition. To measure changes, the participants took a questionnaire that asked them to rate how much tinnitus was impacting their sleep, sense of control, feelings of well-being and quality of life. After 12 weeks of using the device, participants improved by an average of 14 points.
"Where this device fits into the big picture, is that it's not a cure-all, but it's quickly become my go-to," for people who do not respond to other ways of managing tinnitus, Fligor says.
One down-side is the cost. Banks paid about $4,000 for the Lenire device, and insurance doesn't cover it. She put the expense on her credit card and paid it off gradually.
Fligor hopes that as the evidence of its effectiveness accumulates, insurers will begin to cover it. Despite the cost, more than 80% of participants in the clinical trial said they would recommend the device to a friend with tinnitus.
But, it's unclear how long the benefits last. Clinical trials have only evaluated Lenire over a 1-year period. "How durable are the effects? We don't really know yet," says audiologist Marc Fagelson, the scientific advisory committee chair of the American Tinnitus Association. He says research is promising but there's still more to learn.
Fagelson says the first step he takes with his patients is an evaluation for hearing loss. Research shows that hearing aids can be an effective treatment for tinnitus among people who have both tinnitus and hearing loss, which is much more common among older adults. An estimated one-third of adults 65 years of age and older who have hearing loss, also have tinnitus.
"We do see a lot of patients, even with very mild loss, who benefit from hearing aids," Fagelson says, but in his experience it's about 50-50 in terms of improving tinnitus. Often, he says people with tinnitus need to explore options beyond hearing aids.
Bruce Freeman , a scientist at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, says he's benefitted from both hearing aids and Lenire. He was fitted for the device in Ireland where it was developed, before it was available in the U.S.
Freeman agrees that the ringing never truly disappears, but the device has helped him manage the condition. He describes the sounds that play through the device headphones as very calming and "almost hypnotic" and combined with the tongue vibration, it's helped desensitize him to the ring.
Freeman – who is a research scientist – says he's impressed with the results of research, including a study published in Nature, Scientific Reports that points to significant improvements among clinical trial participants with tinnitus.
Freeman experienced a return of his symptoms when he stopped using the device. "Without it the tinnitus got worse," he says. Then, when he resumed use, it improved.
Freeman believes his long-term exposure to noisy instruments in his research laboratory may have played a role in his condition, and also a neck injury from a bicycle accident that fractured his vertebra. "All of those things converged," he says.
Freeman has developed several habits that help keep the high-pitched ring out of his consciousness and maintain good health. "One thing that does wonders is swimming," he says, pointing to the swooshing sound of water in his ears. "That's a form of mindfulness," he explains.
When it comes to the ring of tinnitus, "it comes and goes," Freeman says. For now, it has subsided into the background, he told me with a sense of relief. "The last two years have been great," he says – a combination of the device, hearing aids and the mindfulness that comes from a swim.
This story was edited by Jane Greenhalgh
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By Benjamin Mueller
The Biden administration, under acute pressure from House lawmakers, moved on Wednesday to ban funding for a prominent virus-hunting nonprofit group whose work with Chinese scientists had put it at the heart of theories that Covid leaked from a lab.
The decision, announced in a letter from the Department of Health and Human Services, came on the heels of a scorching congressional hearing this month at which lawmakers barraged the group’s president with suggestions that he had misrepresented work with virologists in Wuhan, China, where the pandemic began. Republicans went further, demanding that Peter Daszak, the president of the nonprofit, EcoHealth Alliance, be criminally investigated.
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Name_____ Fluency Homework—Week 15 Field Mouse and House Mouse One day Field Mouse met House Mouse. Field Mouse invited House 11 Mouse to visit her. The mice set off for Field Mouse's small home in the 26 ground. Field Mouse made her new friend comfortable. She didn't have 37
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Over the course of the year the passages cover a variety of genres: informational text, fable, biography, myth, folktale, tall tale, etc. All of it is common core aligned. For example, the core for 2 nd grade says: Compare and contrast the most important points presented by two texts on the same topic. So we have 4 passages on roller coasters.
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Handout 5C: Fluency Homework Directions: 1. Day 1: Read the text carefully and annotate to help you read fluently. 2. Each day: a. Practice reading the text three to five times. b. Evaluate your progress by placing a √+, √, or √- in each unshaded box.
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Name_____Fluency Homework—Week 5 Three Stages of Life A hen lays an egg. The egg hatches. A chick is born! The chick grows 15 into a hen. One day she lays an egg. That egg hatches into a chick. Can 31 you guess what happens to the chick? She grows up and lays an egg. 45 The same thing happens over and over again.
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Its dividend yield sits at 4.7% -- the most in over 15 years. UPS has also raised its dividend every year for the last 15 years, including a monster 49% raise in early 2022.
RF.2.4. Parent Tips. One important goal of weekly fluency practice is to make students automatic readers. A reader who has to sound out each word cannot focus on the meaning of what is being read. "Fluency is, in a sense, a bridge between phonics and word decoding on one hand, and vocabulary (word meaning) and comprehension (passage meaning ...
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More than 25 million adults in the U.S. have tinnitus, a condition that causes ringing or buzzing in the ears. An FDA approved device that stimulates the tongue, helped 84% of people who tried it.
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Name_____Fluency Homework—Week 5 Three Stages of Life A hen lays an egg. The egg hatches. A chick is born! The chick grows 15 into a hen. One day she lays an egg. That egg hatches into a chick. Can 31 you guess what happens to the chick? She grows up and lays an egg. 45
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Name_____Fluency Homework—Week 7 Three Special Colors Look around you. Unless you are in a cave, you can see lots of colors. 15 Your shirt may be one color. Your pencil may be a very different color. 29 A tree, a book, your hair...so many colors to see! Of all the colors, three 45 are most important.
Name_____Fluency Homework—Week 6 Three Kittens Learn a Lesson Mother cat needed to get some food. She told her three 11 kittens not to leave the house while she was gone. The kittens ... he should be reading about 50 words correct per minute (wcpm) on grade-level texts. In the winter, he should reach about 75 wcpm. By the end of 2nd grade ...